The Josh Hammer Report

Josh Hammer

Newsweek Senior Editor-at-Large And Host,
"The Josh Hammer Show"

Welcome back! Here are some highlights from the last week.

My most recent column analyzed the state of the Republican presidential primary, and the possible paths forward for the field, in the aftermath of last Wednesday evening's first (and Donald Trump-less) debate. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who polls a distant second to Trump in national horse race polling, was the generally perceived "winner" of the debate according to focus groups and most available polling—although it was certainly a subtler victory, and not exactly a dominant performance. DeSantis has seen a bump in limited post-debate Iowa polling, but the reality is that simple math may hinder his chances of catching Trump if things continue along the current Aesopian "slow but steady (maybe) wins the race" trajectory. The reality is that one of two things probably has to happen to potentially derail Trump's third bid for the GOP presidential nomination: a rapid exacerbation of Trump's legal woes, whereby he is physically stretched so thin across four different jurisdictions and so strapped for cash that donors and party leaders truly start to sound the alarm; or a consolidation of the non-Trump field around the only candidate who stands any chance of defeating Trump in a mano-a-mano matchup, DeSantis.

I have had two podcast episodes since our last newsletter. First, I recorded an episode the day after the GOP presidential debate, analyzing each candidate's performance—from DeSantis the de facto victor to Vivek Ramaswamy the smarmy egomaniac to also-rans like former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Overall, the debate exceeded my expectations in terms of pure entertainment value, but the question very much remains whether any of this matters at all while Trump—who pre-recorded a lame, softball interview with Tucker Carlson that aired on "X" (formerly known as Twitter) at the same time as the debate—remains the undisputed front-runner. (You can listen to that episode on Apple, Spotify or here.) Second, I recorded an episode earlier this week where I analyzed the post-debate polling trickling in and the possible paths forward for the field of GOP presidential candidates, broke down the Georgia indictments (for Trump and his numerous codefendants) and the Left's outrageous attempts to criminalize large swaths of the legal profession in this country and discussed how the Right could possibly begin to crawl its way back from the brink. (You can listen to that episode on Apple, Spotify or here.)

In terms of other media hits and appearances since our last newsletter: I joined "Always Right Radio with Bob Frantz" on AM 1420 "The Answer" (Cleveland) to analyze the first GOP presidential debate; joined "The Steve Deace Show" on BlazeTV for the always-entertaining week-in-review "Deace Group" roundtable panel; joined "The Jason Rantz Show" on AM 770 KTTH (Seattle) to analyze the GOP presidential debate and the political ripples of former President Trump's now-iconic mugshot last Thursday evening in Fulton County, Georgia; joined "Jenna Ellis in the Morning" on American Family Radio to discuss the Georgia indictments and the Left's harrowing criminalization of the legal profession itself; appeared on "The Shermichael Singleton Show" on SiriusXM to unpack the first GOP presidential debate and analyze the state of the presidential primary; and (as always) co-hosted the Edmund Burke Foundation's weekly "NatCon Squad" podcast.

Our additional highlighted right-leaning Newsweek op-eds from the past two weeks include selections from David Brog, Saurabh Sharma, Mary Katharine Ham, Mark Davis, and Brooke W. Stanton.

Thanks for subscribing! Please share the word about this newsletter throughout your social circles. We'll be back next week—and, in the interim, enjoy tonight's debate!

Spotlight

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The Paths Forward for the GOP Presidential Field

Wednesday evening's much-anticipated first Republican presidential primary debate came and went without an obvious "winner" or dominant figure. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the onstage front-runner given the conspicuous absence of former President Donald Trump, performed ably with numerous compelling and substantive answers, but pre-debate expectations were high enough—and his national horse race polling deficit with Trump wide enough—that it was left unclear whether such a performance might suffice. Some of the second-tier candidates, such as former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, likely outperformed; some, such as Haley's fellow South Carolinian, Sen. Tim Scott, likely underperformed. And there was the glib charlatan Vivek Ramaswamy, whose egomania and insufferably grating nature were finally exposed before a national television audience; his personal favorability polling metrics have cratered, accordingly.

Of those who participated, DeSantis was the steadiest hand and delivered the best performance overall. He was righteously indignant when such indignation was called for, and he reminded the viewers of his transformative governing track record in Florida at the right moments. It would have been gratifying to see DeSantis knock down Ramaswamy a few notches, but the governor came across as competent, untouched, and above the fray. A post-debate Fox News focus group and most available post-debate polling revealed DeSantis as the most popular choice when those who had watched the debate were asked to identify the "winner."

But it was not a thoroughly memorable or dominant performance, either—not exactly a first-round, Mike Tyson-style knockout blow. And a certain Palm Beach denizen, now fending off four separate criminal indictments from this most vindictive of regimes, was notably absent from the Milwaukee melee. More data is needed before offering any firm conclusions, but it is difficult to foresee the next batch of polls moving the needle a great deal. It must also be noted that a multi-candidate debate format simply does not play to DeSantis' strengths as a politician; he has many strengths, but this is just not one of them. So perhaps we cannot reasonably expect more than Wednesday's cool, composed, and low-key winning performance in future crowded debates. The question thus becomes whether, at this current trajectory, "slow and steady" will indeed "win the race," as Aesop once taught.

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