NFL Mock Draft: Mel Kiper Jr. Shows 2024 QB Order Isn't Locked In

Longtime ESPN NFL draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. released his first 2024 mock draft of the year on Tuesday, and it featured a surprise of sorts at the top.

Kiper projects that the Washington Commanders will take LSU's Heisman Trophy–winning quarterback Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 overall pick rather than Drake Maye, the highly regarded signal-caller out of North Carolina. The analyst, who has served as an ESPN draft expert since 1984, has Maye being selected third by the New England Patriots.

Consider that a departure from the NFL draft forecast of the last year or so.

Maye has long been considered the second-best available QB in this draft, or perhaps even a challenger to USC's Caleb Williams—whom Kiper has going No. 1 to the Chicago Bears—for the top overall pick. And that's still the case for most pundits. Recent mock drafts from the NFL Network, USA Today, The Athletic, CBS Sports and other outlets have Maye going second overall, right behind Williams and ahead—in some cases, well ahead—of Daniels.

But Kiper thinks the LSU standout is too good for the Commanders to pass up. And he shared an anecdote from Daniels' former Arizona State coach, Herm Edwards, to help explain why.

"He was remarkable," Kiper told Mike Greenberg on Tuesday's episode of ESPN's Get Up. "I went to Herm Edwards, and Herm compares him to Randall Cunningham. Lamar Jackson comps are going to be out there, but Herm said he's Randall Cunningham. I'll take that...The great thing about Jayden is he's aggressive with his legs, aggressive with his arm. But he doesn't turn the ball over. To strike that balance is really rare and really impresses me."

Daniels placed himself firmly on NFL teams' radars and improved his draft stock over the course of his 2023 campaign. The 6-foot-4, 210-pound dual-threat QB threw for 3,812 yards, ran for another 1,134 and combined for 50 total touchdowns as a fifth-year senior.

Maye, meanwhile, didn't have the season he might have hoped for.

The 21-year-old signal-caller saw declines in completion percentage, passing yards, touchdowns and passer rating—and an uptick in interceptions—in 2023, coming off of a breaking 2022 season in Chapel Hill. While appearing on ESPN Tuesday morning, Kiper singled out Maye's performances against Virginia and North Carolina State, saying the QB missed "easy throws" and was plagued by turnovers.

Still, NFL Media's Daniel Jeremiah recently said Maye "offers immense talent and potential" in his mock draft. The Athletic's Dane Brugler considers the Tar Heel a fantastic consolation prize—for a team that doesn't land Williams—who "has the talent to develop into a top 10 NFL quarterback."

Kiper partially attributed Maye's 2023 performance to having to adapt to a change in coordinator, plus being without top target Tez Walker for a chunk of the season.

"I think when you look at Jayden Daniels, the way he can attack a defense, the fear-factor player he is—defensive coordinators don't want to scheme to handle this guy," Kiper said of the 23-year-old LSU QB.

"And Drake Maye didn't have that super unbelievable season that he needed to have,"
he went on. "I'm not going to hate on Drake Maye. I really like Drake Maye. But when you talk about the second-overall pick right now, I think Jayden Daniels right now has the edge going into this whole draft process leading up to late April."

The Commanders recently hired Adam Peters to oversee football decisions, while the Patriots are also in the middle of a regime change and desperate for superior quarterback play. Then factor in the Bears, who own the top pick, thanks to a trade with the Carolina Panthers, and have to weigh keeping it or sticking with Justin Fields under center.

No matter who ends up with the No. 1 pick, it's safe to say there will be plenty of quarterback action at the top of this year's draft. But what order will Williams, Daniels and Maye be selected in? Well, that debate will rage on through the scouting combine to team pro days, all the way up to April's NFL draft.

But Kiper made it clear with his initial mock draft that there is no current consensus.