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With four teams remaining in the NFL playoffs, the San Francisco 49ers are two wins away from completing one of the most surprising run to the Super Bowl title in recent memory.
The 49ers arrived into the playoffs as the No. 1 seed in the NFC and their first playoff appearance in six years could have hardly gone better, as they defeated the Minnesota Vikings 27-10 on home soil on Saturday afternoon in the divisional round.
As San Francisco prepares to host the Green Bay Packers in its first NFC Championship since 2014, the 49ers have the second-highest chance of winning the Super Bowl of any of the four teams left in the playoffs.
According to Oddschecker, the 49ers have a 37.8 percent of lifting the Lombardi Trophy this season, just below the Kansas City Chiefs, whose chances stand at 42.1 percent—FiveThirtyEight projects a wider gap, giving the Chiefs a 43 percent chance, while the 49ers have a 26 percent chance.
The Packers follow in third place at 13.3 percent, while Tennessee's chances stand at 11.1 percent, hardly surprising given the Titans are the lowest-ranked team left in the postseason and the only survivor from the wild-card round.
Based on their regular season record, it should come as no surprise to see the 49ers listed as the second-favorite to triumph in Miami in Super Bowl LIV next month.
Kyle Shanahan's men went 13-3 this season, topping the NFC West and finishing with the joint-best record in the conference.
From a statistical standpoint, the 49ers were perfectly balance on both sides of the ball during the regular season. They ranked fourth in total offense and second in rushing offense, second in total defense and conceded the fewest yards through the air of any team.
Cast your glance back to the beginning of the season, however, and the full extent of the run the 49ers have put together becomes clear.
San Francisco began the season as a 5/1 outsider to win a first divisional title since 2012 after going 4-12 in 2018 and were a 40/1 shot to win a first Lombardi Trophy since 1995.
Data provided by Oddschecker, shows the 49ers did not feature among the 12 teams with the best chances of winning the Super Bowl in Week 1.
The New England Patriots led the pack, with a 12.5 percent chance of defending their title, followed by the Chiefs, New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams.
The 49ers broke into the top-12 after winning their first four games and were third-favorite to win the Super Bowl by the time they suffered their first defeat of the season in Week 9 at home against Seattle.
The Patriots also lost for the first time in Week 9, but remained the overwhelming favorite with a 28.6 percent change of winning back-to-back titles, followed by the Saints.
San Francisco had reeled both of them in at the end of the regular season, as it secured top spot in the NFC after defeating the Seahawks on the road in Week 17.
With 14.3 percent chances of winning Super Bowl LIV, the trio remained a distant second compared to the Baltimore Ravens, whose chances stood at 30.8 percent after they won 12 straight games to finish the regular season with a league-best 14-2 record.
Inspired by MVP-in-waiting Lamar Jackson, the Ravens torched opponents throughout the season and seemed unstoppable as they entered the playoffs with the best offense in the NFL.
The Titans, however, were able to solve the equation, defeating the Ravens 28-10 in Baltimore a week after beating the Patriots in New England.
An 80/1 long shot at the beginning of the season, Tennessee is now an 8/1 outsider following its playoff exploits and its chances of a second Super Bowl title stand at 11 percent.
Mike Vrabel's team will be on the road again on Sunday, taking on the Chiefs in Kansas City, Missouri.
In the bookmakers' eyes, the Chiefs' chances of winning the Super Bowl just edge the 49ers', even though Andy Reid's men followed a vastly different path to San Francisco.
Kansas City began the season with the shortest odds of any team aside from the Patriots, but their chances had almost halved by the time they arrived in Week 9 with a 6-3 record.
However, after losing to the Titans the following week, the Chiefs won their final six regular season games to pip the Patriots to second spot in the AFC.
Of the four teams left in the playoffs, the Packers are arguably the franchise that followed the steadiest path. Green Bay began the year as a 20/1 shot to win the Super Bowl and gradually worked its way through the pack during the regular season.
As they approach their fifth NFC Championship game since 2007, the Packers are now 7/1 to hoist the Lombardi Trophy aloft for the first time since 2010.
About the writer
Dan Cancian is currently a reporter for Newsweek based in London, England. Prior to joining Newsweek in January 2018, he ... Read more