NFL Strength of Schedule: Which Team Has the Hardest Slate of Games in 2023?

One of the oldest cliches in sports says that teams can only play the opponents that are in front of them. That line is usually trotted out when a club is facing skepticism after piling up big wins against weaker opposition.

But what about the opposite end of the spectrum? For every team with a soft schedule, another club is facing a metaphorical murderers' row.

With that in mind, let's consider the 2023 NFL season and which clubs have the hardest road ahead.

How is NFL strength of schedule determined?

Upon first glance, strength of schedule seems like an intuitive idea. You look at the opponents that each NFL team will face, and determine how the difficulties of the games compare. In practice, though, there's some variation.

Some sources, like SportsBettingDime.com, work from projected NFL win totals, which are an average of each team's Over/Under lines across multiple sportsbooks. Others, like CBS Sports, examine the previous year's performance; the hardest schedule, for example, is the one with the highest combined opposition winning percentage.

For this post, though, we'll be working from the latter model. Now, on to business.

T-4. New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys: Opponents' 2022 winning percentage of .549

The Giants and Cowboys are historic rivals, but they're on equal footing when it comes to the schedule.

Since both clubs are in the same division, they face largely the same opponents: the rest of the NFC East, the NFC West and the AFC East. The G-Men also play the New Orleans Saints, Green Bay Packers and Las Vegas Raiders; the Cowboys host the Detroit Lions and visit both the Los Angeles Chargers and Carolina Panthers.

Given the comparable schedules, it will be interesting to see if either team can make up ground in the division. The Eagles have a challenging slate of games—we'll see them later in this article—meaning that the NFC East could come down to the wire.

And, as football fans, what's more fun than a tight divisional race as the playoffs approach?

3. New England Patriots: Opponents' 2022 winning percentage of .549 (with one fewer game)

While the Patriots' opponents have the same winning percentage as the Giants and Cowboys, the math gives them the slightest edge. Since New England faces Buffalo twice—the Bills saw their game against Cincinnati go unfinished after Damar Hamlin's scary cardiac arrest—their collective opponents played one fewer game, putting the fraction in the Pats' favor.

Moving onto this year's schedule, Bill Belichick and company also drew the short straw of facing the AFC West. The Kansas City Chiefs present obvious challenges, but the entire division represents a challenge. Add two divisional dates with both the Bills and the Dolphins, plus a visit from the Philadelphia Eagles into the mix, and the challenge is obvious.

Given that Matt Patricia has left town and Bill O'Brien has assumed control of the offense, it will be interesting to see how Mac Jones and his unit cope with the challenge. Will they rise to the occasion? Or will things continue to slide?

2. Miami Dolphins: Opponents' 2022 winning percentage of .554

Teams that win their division usually end up with some of the tougher schedules in the NFL. That's not always true, though, and the AFC East proves it. The Miami Dolphins, who finished second behind the Bills, have the second-hardest schedule in the entire league.

What makes their slate of games so tough? Well, two dates with the Bills don't help matters. Miami will also face the entirety of the AFC West, and the NFC East. While facing the Broncos and the Commanders might not seem like an issue, that also sets up meetings with the Chiefs and the Eagles.

Last year, the Dolphins were expected to take a step forward, but only managed to finish a game above .500. Can they fare any better while facing the second-most challenging schedule in the entire NFL?

1. Philadelphia Eagles: Opponents' 2022 winning percentage of .566

While they couldn't quite seal the deal with a title, the Philadelphia Eagles cruised through the 2022 NFL season. Their reward for that success is the toughest schedule on the entire 2023 slate.

What makes things so challenging? As we've already discussed, the NFC East crosses over with the AFC West and AFC East, meaning the Eagles have to face the Chiefs and the Bills. The Minnesota Vikings, San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, three other division winners, are also on the schedule.

The question, of course, is if the Eagles can cope with a bear of a schedule and remain atop the NFC. Jalen Hurts and the offense looked unstoppable last year but questions have emerged about Philadelphia's defense. Can that unit be good enough over the course of a season? Or will cracks ultimately start to emerge?

Looking at the remaining NFL strength of schedules

Five teams, however, don't make up the NFL. For reference, this is how the entire league stacks up.