U.S. Troops Face Uncertainty in Niger as Wagner Seeks to Capitalize on Coup

The U.S. is deciding what to do with its 1,000 troops in Niger amid a report that the head of Russia's Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has offered his fighters' services to forces that staged a military takeover in the former French colony.

A U.S. military official said that American troops had been restricted to their base in the city of Agadez, NBC News reported on Monday, after President Mohamed Bazoum was seized by members of the presidential guard.

Rebel leaders have declared General Abdourahamane Tiani as the new head of state in the seventh military takeover in West and Central Africa in less than three years. The U.S. has had troops in Niger for around a decade, mostly advising and training its forces on counterterrorism.

But Russia's footprint in the region has been growing thanks to the Wagner Group, which has contracts in countries such as the Central African Republic and Mali.

A voice message on Telegram, believed to be Prigozhin speaking, described how what had happened was "the struggle of the people of Niger with their colonisers," Reuters reported.

"If Wagner were to enter Niger, it could pose a threat to U.S. operations in much the same way that Wagner has previously undermined French, European, and UN presence in other African countries, such as Mali," said Catrina Doxsee, associate director of the Transnational Threats Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

West African pivot from France towards Russia

However the U.S., unlike France and several other European powers, is not overshadowed by a colonial history, and so "U.S. assistance may remain appealing. "

"U.S. policymakers would be wise to prioritize the U.S.-Nigerien relationship in their response, rather than forcing an ultimatum between the United States and Russia as partners," she told Newsweek.

Prigozhin's apparent offer of help fits in with his pattern of opportunism in seeking weak or transitioning governments needing security assistance. Wagner also provides a key link for the Kremlin to the continent's lucrative natural resources.

"I would expect Wagner to accept an offer from the Nigerien junta if one comes," Doxsee told Newsweek. "However, any agreement may be difficult to execute fully, given both the heavy uncertainty surrounding Wagner's future and strains on personnel across their current deployments."

Prigozhin was heard in a video last month telling his men in Belarus that they should gather their strength for a "new journey to Africa." Two images purportedly of the Wagner leader appeared on Telegram showing him meeting attendees at last week's Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg.

There are no indications Wagner played any role in the takeover in Niger but a U.S. official told CNN Washington that it was expected Prigozhin, who led a failed mutiny against Russia's military establishment in June, would try to take advantage of it.

Niger gained independence in 1960 but amid a pivot away from France and towards Russia in West Africa, the takeover has prompted demonstrations against the former colonial power.

The BBC reported that protesters outside the French embassy in the capital Niamey chanted "Long live Russia," "Long live Putin" and "Down with France."

The Biden administration has not yet decided if the takeover officially constitutes a coup, which would require cutting foreign and military assistance to the government in Niamey. A senior State Department official told CNN work was under way to reinstate Bazoum.

Newsweek has contacted the U.S. State Department for comment.