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Former South Carolina Governor and presidential hopeful Nikki Haley could beat incumbent Joe Biden in a potential head-to-head matchup on November 5, according to some polls.
Haley's campaign had been stalling for the better part of 2023 when it was suddenly boosted by the endorsement of Americans for Prosperity Action, a conservative donor group led by billionaire Charles Koch. In November, the resource-rife network threw its "full support" behind Haley as an alternative to Donald Trump, saying that she was the candidate who could "turn the page on our political dysfunction—and win." Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie ending his presidential bid could also prove beneficial for the former United Nations ambassador, namely in New Hampshire.
Some polls show that Haley could actually have a chance of beating Biden in the November election should she make it through the Republican primaries, the polls of which indicate Trump is currently the frontrunner by a huge margin. Newsweek has contacted the Haley and Trump campaigns for comment, as well as the White House.
According to a poll conducted by Fox News between December 10 and December 13 among 1,007 registered voters, Haley would be ahead of Biden 49 percent to 43 percent in a potential matchup.
A previous poll by the Wall Street Journalconducted between November 29 and December 4 gave Haley an even wider margin of 17 percentage points over Biden, with the Republican at 51 percent over the incumbent's 34 percent. The survey interviewed 1,500 registered voters.
A Messenger/Harris poll, conducted from November 27 to December 1 among 2,018 registered voters, gave Haley a 10-percentage point lead over Biden, at 55 percent against the Democrat's 45 percent.
But the possibility of Haley's victory against Biden is far from certain, as just as many other polls released over the same period foresee the president's victory over the Republican hopeful.
A poll run by The Economist and YouGov between December 31 and January 2 among 1,521 adults gave Biden a 5-percentage point lead, with the Democrat at 41 percent against Haley's 36 percent. Another poll by Yahoo News conducted between December 14 and 18 among 1,533 adults gave Biden a 39 to 36 percent victory.
A Harvard-Harris poll of 2,034 registered voters, run on December 13 and December 14, estimated Biden to win with a 2-percentage point margin over Haley, while another poll conducted by Emerson among 402 registered voters between December 4 and December 6 put the two candidates in a tie.
Website RealClearPolling compiled all these polls from the end of November to the beginning of January, giving Haley an average lead of 3.3 percentage points over Biden.
But Haley is still trailing Trump in Republican primary polling by a massive margin—casting serious doubt on whether she could ever face Biden in November. As of January 10, Trump was at 61.3 percent on average nationally, according to polling analysis website FiveThirtyEight, while Haley had 11.5 percent and was still behind Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, at 12.5 percent.
The former South Carolina governor was faring a little better in Iowa, where the primary season is set to kick off with the caucuses on January 15. According to FiveThirtyEight, Haley was at 16.8 percent behind DeSantis with 17.2 percent and Trump with 51.8 percent as of January 10.
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About the writer
Giulia Carbonaro is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on the U.S. economy, housing market, property ... Read more