Nikki Haley's Chances of Defeating Donald Trump, According to Polls

Recent polling data suggests a growing challenge for Donald Trump in the 2024 GOP presidential primary, with former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley gaining meaningful traction, especially in key early voting states like New Hampshire.

As the 2024 Republican primary race heats up, new polls from early states and nationally show former President Trump's once-solid lead may be softening, with Haley, who previously served as South Carolina's governor, emerging as a formidable contender.

Trump vs. Haley

Current averages compiled from ABC's news and polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight as of December 23, show Trump leading in New Hampshire, Iowa, and nationally. However, Haley's numbers are growing, particularly in New Hampshire, where she is polling at an average of 25.7 percent against Trump's 44.1 percent.

New Hampshire

An American Research Group poll conducted this week shows Trump leading but only by a slender margin of 4 points, standing at 33 percent compared to Haley's 29 percent. The tight race is echoed in a Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll from December 18 to 19, where Trump leads with 44 percent to Haley's 30 percent, a margin of 14 points.

However, a survey by Americans for Prosperity, conducted from December 17 to 18, shows Trump leading by 13 points at 45 percent against Haley's 32 percent, when fellow Republican contenders Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy and Asa Hutchinson are factored in. The gap narrows dramatically in a head-to-head matchup between Trump and Haley, showing the former president at 48 percent and the former South Carolina governor close behind at 45 percent, trimming the lead to just 3 points.

The new American Research Group poll results made the former president furious, Newsweek previously reported, leading him to share an all-caps post on Truth Social where he claimed that the poll was fake.

Trump then shared a University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion poll from December 7 to December 18 where he has a substantial lead of 30 points, polling at 52 percent against Haley's 22 percent.

Newsweek has reached out to both the Trump campaign and the Haley campaign via email for comment.

Iowa

In Iowa, a pivotal state for setting the tone in the early stages of the presidential primaries, the Republican race is leaning toward Trump. As of December 23, a compilation of polling data indicates Trump maintaining a commanding lead with 50.0 percent. However, the race for second place shows some competition, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 18.4 percent and Haley closely following at 15.7 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight averages.

A recent Emerson College poll, conducted between December 15 and 17, reinforces Trump's strong position in Iowa. It shows him leading with a margin of 33 points, securing 50 percent support compared to Haley's 17 percent.

The gap between Trump and his closest competitors in Iowa, according to the Emerson College poll, is an indication that other candidates like Haley and DeSantis may have a hard time making inroads into Trump's base.

Nationally

At the national level, the Republican primary for the 2024 presidential election presents a clear frontrunner, with Trump leading the field. As of December 23, the former has secured a lead of 62.4 percent in the aggregate polling data, according to FiveThirtyEight. His closest competitors, DeSantis and Haley, hold 11.7 percent and 10.8 percent respectively.

A McLaughlin & Associates poll conducted between December 13 and 19 shows Trump with a staggering 74 percent support, leading Haley by 48 points. Another poll by YouGov for Yahoo News, held between December 14 and 18, echoed the trend, placing Trump at 70 percent and Haley at 19 percent, a difference of 51 points.

Echelon Insights' poll, from December 12 to 16 reinforces Trump's lead with him securing 76 percent against Haley's 20 percent, indicating a 56-point lead. Similarly, a Siena College poll conducted for the New York Times, shows Trump at 64 percent and Haley at 11 percent, a 53-point lead for Trump.

What's Going to Happen?

In the context of historical precedents and current polling trends, Trump's position as the frontrunner in the Republican primary appears increasingly solidified.

No presidential candidate has ever lost the nomination while leading so significantly in national polls at this stage of the cycle, according to ABC News, which first noted the trend. That perspective, supported by current polling data, suggests an uphill battle for contenders like Haley, despite their notable gains in early states.

The political landscape of the primaries—while subject to change—currently points towards a strong likelihood of Trump securing the GOP nomination, barring any unprecedented developments in the coming months.