Nikki Haley Blew It

Losing in the New Hampshire primary will likely sink Nikki Haley's chances of becoming the Republican Party presidential nominee, political experts told Newsweek.

The former South Carolina governor and former ambassador to the United Nations received 43.2 percent of the vote on Tuesday, according to the Associated Press, losing to the former president and GOP frontrunner Donald Trump, who won 54.5 percent of the vote.

One expert in U.S. politics told Newsweek: "The bottom line is: she lost. Trump will be the nominee."

While Trump was expected to win the state, it had been tipped to be a closer race with polls in the weeks leading up to the vote showing that Haley was gaining ground on Trump. With the state allowing independents and non-registered Democrats to vote in the GOP primary, the New Hampshire primary was seen as Haley's best shot at beating Trump. Some 40 percent of voters in the state are independent and polls showed Haley was more popular than Trump among this group.

Haley also focused much of her campaign in the state, which was where she was polling highest, and now she has failed to win it she is facing pressure to drop out of the race, including from Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel. After coming second in the Iowa caucus last week, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump.

Speaking to Newsweek, Thomas Gift, associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, said: "Haley can frame last night's performance in New Hampshire as a consolation prize. But the bottom line is: she lost. Trump will be the nominee, and there's no slowing his momentum.

"If there was any state where Haley could derail Trump's coronation, it was New Hampshire. She could count on the state's independent voters, endorsement from the popular governor, and nearly infinite amounts of anti-Trump super-PAC money flowing into her campaign. It only gets harder from here on out, as Haley faces a wave of states where Trump's headlock on the party is much stronger. To win Republican primaries, you have to appeal to the right wing. Right now, these voters are squarely in the MAGA camp."

Newsweek contacted representatives for Haley by email to comment on this story.

Bill O'Brien, a Republican National Committeeman in New Hampshire who is neutral in the primary, told NBC News before the results came in that it would be tough for Haley to go on if she didn't win one of the first two states.

"I find it difficult to see an open avenue for her to go on to the nomination," O'Brien said, adding that he doesn't think any other state "is going to be all that different."

Meanwhile on X, Jesse Cohen, a global markets analyst, wrote: "She will likely drop out in the days ahead."

He added: "Barring any unexpected developments, a Trump-Biden rematch is all but certain at this point."

Political scientist Rachel Bitecofer added Haley might stay in the race as Trump risks being dropped from ballots in multiple states and faces legal cases that could lead to his conviction.

On X, she wrote: "In a normal race, Haley's funds would dry up and she'd have to drop out. But these are not normal times. Her opponent may be disqualified from the ballot and/or a convicted felon by mid-summer. Her big donors are banking on that."

CNN's Abby Phillip said Haley could still prove problematic for Trump, who wants to show his "dominance" and "have people come and kiss the ring."

"The fact that Nikki Haley has not done that yet is a problem for him," she said.

In a speech after it was announced Trump had won the state, Haley congratulated the former president on his victory, but said she would not drop out of the race.

"This race is far from over," Haley said. "There are dozens of states left to go."

She asserted that a Trump candidacy would mean "a Biden win and a Kamala Harris presidency."

"With Donald Trump, Republicans have lost almost every competitive election," she said. "We lost in 2018, we lost in 2020, we lost in 2022. The worst-kept secret in politics is how badly the Democrats want to run against Donald Trump."

Haley challenged Trump to face her on the debate stage, saying: "He thinks he'd do better [on a mental test] than me. Maybe he would, maybe he wouldn't. But if he thinks that, then he should have no problem standing on a debate stage with me."

Posting on X, formerly Twitter, she added: "I've got bad news for the political establishment: I'm not going anywhere ... except to my sweet South Carolina," Haley said. "We're not going to let them coronate Donald Trump when 48 states haven't voted. #BringIt"

Trump, posting on Truth Social, said that "Haley said she had to WIN in New Hampshire. SHE DIDN'T!!!"

In a victory speech he questioned why she was still in the race.

"She's doing a speech like she won—she didn't win, she lost," the former president told a crowd of supporters. "She ran up and pretended she won Iowa. Didn't she come in third?"

Trump questioned why Haley refused to suspend her campaign, saying: "Ron [DeSantis] came in second and he left. [Nikki Haley] came in third and she's still around."