Why Any Nikki Haley Victory Could Be Short Lived

White House hopeful Nikki Haley will face off against Donald Trump in the New Hampshire GOP primary today—but experts are not convinced she can pull off a much-needed win after coming third in Iowa.

Haley will battle against Trump in a one-on-one showdown in the New Hampshire GOP primary, after campaigning extensively in the state as an alternative to Trump, who is outpacing his opponent considerably following Ron DeSantis's exit from the race.

While the former president is hoping to deliver a resounding blow to Haley that could make him the only candidate left, Haley has remained buoyant in her chances of success. The former South Carolina governor is hoping any triumph will come from independent voters and more moderate Republicans.

In New Hampshire, independent voters without a party affiliation can vote in either Democrat or Republican contests—a fertile ground on which Haley is hoping to monopolize. A poll conducted by Boston Globe/NBC-10/Suffolk before DeSantis dropped out showed Haley leading Trump among these voters at 49 percent, ahead by 11 points.

However, overall polls including GOP members are pointing to an almost-definite defeat, with polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight predicting a win for Trump with 52.3 percent of the vote. Haley is trailing behind at 36.7 percent, which is still more than her vote share in the Iowa caucuses in which she came third.

An all-out win for Haley is a long shot, but she doesn't need an outright win to stay in the race. Experts say Haley's hopes of any suitable success are unlikely in New Hampshire, despite her efforts.

Legal analyst and Pulitzer Prize-nominated writer Aron Solomon has predicted that Haley will need to score a result within seven points, a hard-to-attain victory that could see her stay in the primaries. "Haley needs to keep things close tonight. 'Close' is, of course, highly subjective," he told Newsweek. "My comfort level would be within 7 points of Trump, which I think is highly unlikely."

He continued: "If she doesn't, there will be calls for the GOP to do what they really aren't great at doing—come together as a party behind the candidate who is at the moment, looking historically strong. Any doubt that former President Trump will be— absent some fairly remarkable judicial action—the GOP nominee is probably an illusion that has about 12 more hours to run."

Recent comments from Haley indicate she will refuse to concede to Trump even in the event of a loss in New Hampshire. "This is a marathon. It's not a sprint. The political and media elite say everybody needs to coalesce around Donald Trump," she told Fox News on Monday. "I'm in this for the long haul."

Don Soffer, political communications strategist and former staffer for Democrat Pete Butteig, said any result that falls short of an objective win over Trump spells trouble for the former UN ambassador. "Anything short of a decisive victory tonight in New Hampshire will be a failure for the Haley campaign," Soffer told Newsweek. "Even with a win, her path forward to the nomination remains questionable at best. Without one, she's toast."

Dan McMillan, founder and director of Save Democracy in America, told Newsweek that Haley should "bow out gracefully" to "minimize humiliation".

He said that despite any big turnout in her favor from independents, it holds little sway in her overall campaign, as it demonstrates that she was still unable to "win over GOP voters". McMillan continued that even if Haley chooses to stay in the fight, she will suffer a "humiliating defeat on her home turf" in South Carolina in late February, the next big GOP contest.

Mike Biundo, a Republican consultant based in New Hampshire who has previously worked on Trump's and Vivek Ramaswamy's campaigns, told Fox News Haley is likely to drop out following today's primary to avoid "facing a potentially embarrassing defeat in her home state of South Carolina."

"I anticipate that a double-digit loss in New Hampshire will force Haley to withdraw from the race by Friday," he said.