Nikki Haley's Chances of Defeating Trump in Iowa and New Hampshire: Polls

With just weeks until the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary, all eyes are on 2024 Republican presidential hopeful Nikki Haley as she aims to break former President Donald Trump's grip on GOP voters, but recent polling suggests she still faces an uphill battle to her party's nomination.

Haley, Trump's former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and the former governor of South Carolina, has emerged in recent weeks as the biggest threat to Trump in the Republican field. With key endorsements from a conservative political advocacy group affiliated with billionaire brothers Charles Koch and the late David Koch and New Hampshire's GOP Governor Chris Sununu, her campaign has given anti-Trump Republicans renewed hope that the former president could be toppled.

While Florida Governor Ron DeSantis remains in the running, his campaign has floundered as Haley has ascended in the polls. Trump has clearly taken notice, ramping up his attack against Haley ahead of the Iowa caucuses slated for January 15 and the New Hampshire primary on January 23.

Despite the hype and extra attention from Trump, Haley continues to trail the former president in recent polls out of both states, as well as in national survey data of Republican voters. Here's a look at where things stand with less than 10 days until the Iowa caucus and just over two weeks until New Hampshirites cast their primary ballots.

Newsweek reached out to representatives for Trump and Haley via email for comment.

Haley vs. Trump in Iowa

While Haley has made gains, she still appears to be well-behind her former boss in Iowa. All of the latest polls show Trump more than 30 points ahead of his Republican rival, and even DeSantis is narrowly ahead of her in one of the most recent surveys.

Polling conducted by InsiderAdvantage on December 18 and 19 showed the former South Carolina governor at 17 percent, whereas Trump was backed by 49 percent of respondents. DeSantis tied Haley in that poll with 17 percent as well. The survey included 850 likely Iowa voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.36 percentage points.

Another survey carried out from December 14 to 18 by Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox Business showed Trump at 52 percent and Haley at 16 percent. DeSantis remained narrowly ahead of Haley in that survey, with 18 percent support. The poll included 804 likely Iowa voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Emerson College polling from December 15 to 17 had similar results. Trump was backed by 50 percent of respondents, whereas Haley had the support of 17 percent and DeSantis was supported by 15 percent. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points with 420 likely voters included.

Haley vs. Trump in New Hampshire

Haley appears to be within striking distance of Trump in the Granite State. Her allies have said that even a strong second-place finish in Iowa could provide the momentum she needs to push her across the finish line for a critical win in New Hampshire.

The most recent poll out of New Hampshire shows Haley down by just 4 points. In that survey by American Research Group, the former South Carolina governor had the support of 33 percent of respondents compared to Trump's 37 percent. The poll was carried out from December 27 to January 3 and included 600 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

A previous survey carried out by American Research Group from December 14 to 20 showed Haley down by the same 4 point margin. However, Trump was backed by 33 percent and his former U.N. ambassador had the support of 29 percent of respondents. That poll also included 600 likely voters with a 4 point margin of error.

However, Trump was ahead of Haley by double-digits in a poll by Saint Anselm College Survey Center conducted from December 18 to 19. The former president was supported by 44 percent of respondents compared to Haley's 30 percent. The survey included 1,072 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percent.

What Will Happen?

Regardless of the attention Haley has received in recent weeks, the polling data shows that Trump remains the most likely GOP candidate to win in Iowa and New Hampshire. However, polling is not a gold standard and things could still change dramatically ahead of the caucus and primary.

Steven Cheung, the former president's spokesperson, called recent New Hampshire polling "garbage" and said Trump would beat Haley in comments to Newsweek on Friday. "It means any reporter who actually believes this garbage poll will lose all credibility once President Trump crushes the competition," he said.

For her part, Haley appeared to suggest that she doesn't expect a win in Iowa during remarks in New Hampshire on Wednesday.

"You know Iowa starts it. You know that you [New Hampshire voters] correct it," she said at a campaign event.