Cincinnati 'Cookie Poll' Has Donald Trump Winning Election

Former President Donald Trump is on track to win the election says one Ohio-based bake shop.

Busken Bakery, with multiple locations in and around Cincinnati, offers cookies featuring the faces of both candidates, along with a third "Cookie Party" option displaying a smiley face. The bakery tracks the sales of each in a tongue-and-cheek effort to predict the winner of the upcoming November election.

The shop has only been wrong once in the last 40 years in predicting the results of the presidential race. The first incorrect prediction came in 2020 when Trump cookies outsold Joe Biden cookies. Similarly, since 1964, Ohio had been voting for the winner of the election overall—until 2020, when Trump won Ohio but lost the election.

This year, Trump-themed cookies are once again the top seller, with the store reporting 2,953 Trump cookies sold compared to 2,134 for Harris and 397 third-party cookie sales, per the latest tally, as reported by The New York Post on Monday. There is no limit to how many cookies a single customer can buy.

Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.

Busken Bakery CEO Dan Busken told the New York Post that the idea for the cookies was conceived by his father, who used to run the company, back in the 1980s.

He also said that while selling the cookies is a bit of fun, he does believe that the company's four locations in Ohio get a diverse swath of the electorate.

"We like to joke and say [customers] can stuff the ballot box," he said, adding: "Our results, out of our four retail stores, kind of cover the north, south, east and west portions of Cincinnati. So they're pretty diverse."

He continued: "Some people this year—especially more than any prior elections—have been more vocal and, not so friendly about things. But we're moving forward. We've done it for 40 years. We think it's fun."

Since 1976, Ohio has chosen a Democrat for the White House five times and a Republican seven times. Ohio voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020, but Cincinnati has a Democratic mayor and the nine members of the city council are all Democrats.

FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker shows that Trump is on track to win in Ohio again, with the former president at 52.1 percent to Harris' 42.5 percent, as of Monday.

Every individual poll conducted in the state since Harris became the candidate has shown Trump with a lead of between 8 and 12 points. FiveThirtyEight's election forecast says Trump has an 87 percent chance of winning the state.

Nationally, Harris is leading Trump by 2.7 points, according to FiveThirtyEight's polling average, which also predicts that Harris is to win the Electoral College.