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If you think it would be a national tragedy if indicted former President Donald Trump was our next president, it is about time to start getting very worried.
The latest NBC News Poll indicates only 20 percent of the country believes the nation is going in the right direction, and 74 percent believe we are on the wrong track. President Joe Biden's approval rating sits stubbornly at 43 percent, and his disapproval at 53 percent. Sixty-eight percent of the country believes Biden's mental and physical health is an issue of major or moderate concern. The same NBC poll in a general election matchup against Trump, Biden leads by just 4 percent, which is within the margin of error, and is the same percentage by which he won the popular vote in 2020, despite all the revelations about Trump in the last two years. Very recent national polls have Trump leading Biden.
Trump's lead over his nearest challenger for the Republican nomination is at least 30 percent, and the prospect of the anti-Trumpers consolidating around a single Republican opponent seems like a long shot. Most disturbingly, the latest polling has Trump and Biden tied in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania.
It is obvious that how independents break will decide the next election. However, how "non-affiliated" voters participate in the primary process may be a key to keeping Donald Trump from securing the Republican nomination. The difference between a non-affiliated voter and an independent is more than semantics. Being an independent is a function of how one self-identifies. It is an identity people use when they want to think of themselves as more open minded. A non-affiliated voter is a function of voter registration. When a voter chooses not to register to vote as a member of either party, perhaps out of disgust with both political parties or a desire to avoid being labeled as a Democrat or a Republican, they are considered non-affiliated for voter registration purposes.
The reason this becomes critically important in the primary process is there are states that permit non-affiliated voters to participate in the party primary of their choosing. Thus, if these voters came out to participate heavily in Republican primaries where they are allowed to vote, they could be a decisive factor in depriving Trump of the nomination.
There are key swing states including Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Georgia that are
"open primary states," where non-affiliated registered voters are permitted to cast their ballot in either party's primary.
Now imagine if all states permitted non-affiliated voters to participate in primary elections—particularly in states like Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. The voter pool would be expanded by over a third (34 percent) in Arizona, over four million (27 percent) in Florida, nearly a third (31 percent) in Nevada, approximately one million voters (14 percent) in Pennsylvania.
By contrast, in Oregon, there are more non-affiliated voters than Democrats or Republicans. However, since Oregon is a closed-party state, these voters are unable to participate in the state primary process. Think how different the political landscape would be if non-affiliated voters participated heavily in primaries. These voters do not represent the base of either the Democrat or Republican parties, so candidates would not be fighting for the most extreme voters, rather they would have to attract the centrist middle. Currently 27 states allow for open primaries to enable non-affiliated voters to cast a ballot, and 23 do not.
Last fall The Common Good, a nonpartisan organization, released The Common Good Index of National Division, an annual index which quantifies the level of national division. The findings indicated "88 percent believe the way political parties choose candidates is an important contributor to national division. Twenty-five percent of Americans place that at the top of the list of things that most divide us."
The problem with non-affiliated voters is that their participation in partisan primaries is extremely low despite the impact their numbers could have if they were driven to vote. While Donald Trump's prospects of getting the Republican nomination are high, his prospects of winning the general election still appear somewhat dubious, even against a less-than-popular Biden. However, the odds of Trump winning increase dramatically if the group No Labels goes forward with their plan to run a "unity ticket," consisting of a prominent Democrat and Republican on their ballot line. Most political observers believe that if they decide to go forward with their plan, Trump could win the swing states by securing a plurality of voters, as the unity ticket would draw a much heavier proportion of voters away from Biden.
No Labels has done some very important work in advancing our democracy, most notably creating the Problem Solvers Caucus in Congress that has nobly advanced the notion of bipartisan, compromise legislative efforts.
However, the No Labels effort in running an independent ticket is extremely dangerous. That is why they need to pivot their mission. Instead, it should organize a massive non-affiliated voter turnout drive to stimulate an outpouring of more centrist voters who would likely support a candidate other than Trump. With an enormous non-affiliated voter turnout in the Republican primary, in the states that allow it, the political landscape could be completely altered, and a Trump nomination defeat could be quite possible. No Labels has indicated one of its core principles is that Trump should never be elected president again and such an effort could assure that.
Moreover, No Labels should expand this effort to convince closed primary states like New York to change to the open primary approach, which would loosen the chokehold that political bosses have over the primary process as it relates to other elective offices, which would certainly allow more moderate voices to emerge.
The beginning of the 2024 primary process is only seven months away, and we need an all-out effort to stop Trump from emerging as the Republican nominee. Generating non-affiliate participation in open primaries can go a long way in achieving that.
Tom Rogers is an editor-at-large for Newsweek, the founder of CNBC and a CNBC contributor. He also established MSNBC and is the former CEO of TiVo. Currently, executive chair of Engine Gaming & Media, and a member of Keep Our Republic, an organization dedicated to preserving the nation's democracy.
Susan Del Percio is a Republican strategist and crisis communications consultant with over 30 years of experience in the political, government, nonprofit and private sector arenas. She is also a political analyst for MSNBC/NBC News.
The views expressed in this article are the writers' own.
