The One Poll That Shows Why Democrats Should Worry About the Midterms

Democrats may have reason to worry about the upcoming midterm elections according to a new poll that shows Republicans leading on two key issues heading into November.

A poll from The Washington Post/ABC News found the the two top issues among registered voters are the economy and inflation—and clear majorities trust Republicans more than Democrats on those issues.

The survey found that 85 percent of registered voters said the economy was either very important or one of the most important issues in deciding their vote in the midterms, while 79 percent said inflation was either very important or one of the most important issues.

The poll was conducted from September 18 to 21 and surveyed 908 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

Among those registered voters, 54 percent said they trusted Republicans to do a better job on the economy, while 37 percent said they trusted Democrats more, 4 percent said neither and 2 percent answered both.

It was a similar picture when it came to the parties' handling of inflation, with 54 percent of registered voters saying they trusted the GOP more on the issue. Just 36 percent said they trusted Democrats more on inflation, while 6 percent said neither and 1 percent said both.

"It's not surprising that the economy, and inflation, are rated as so important by American voters," Robert Singh, a professor at the Department of Politics at Birkbeck, University of London, told Newsweek on Wednesday.

"Midterm elections, and for that matter, presidential elections too, typically hinge on the state of the economy," he said.

"Although there was much speculation that the abortion issue would be critical, this has largely been eclipsed by pocketbook issues, which is normal," Singh said.

"And, as usually occurs, when the economy is faltering the incumbent president's party gets the blame. The Republicans don't really have to do too much in terms of a program, other than to point to the spiraling debt, the profligacy of the Biden administration's spending, and the cost of living to hammer that message home," he added.

The poll results may be a warning sign for Democrats as they brace for midterm elections that are widely expected to be difficult for President Biden's party, though they remain slightly favored to retain control of the Senate, according to poll tracker FiveThirtyEight.

However, FiveThirtyEight's polling analysis also shows that Republicans are favored to take control of the House of Representatives and the economy is likely to remain a major issue during the final month of campaigning.

There are ongoing concerns that the U.S. could enter an economic recession and Biden addressed the matter in an interview with CNN's Jake Tapper on Tuesday.

"I don't think there will be a recession. If it is, it'll be a very slight recession. That is, we'll move down slightly," the president said.

Those comments came after JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that a recession could be on the horizon within six to nine months in remarks on Monday, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the "worst was yet to come" in its half-yearly update.

The IMF advised central banks to focus on tackling inflation, which is the current aim of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Fed has a 2 percent inflation target, but the annualized rate of inflation in August was 8.3 percent. Figures for September are due on Thursday.