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Five years ago this week, world leaders joined together in Paris to sign the landmark accord to limit global temperature rise andprotect people from the catastrophic consequences of a warming world.
The Paris Agreement was lauded as a historic turning point. So,half a decade later, how goes the battle?
In some ways progress has been unexpectedly impressive. Since 2015, over 1,000 big companies have committed to science-based emission reduction targets—committing to decarbonize throughout their value chains and be transparent in reporting progress. Hundreds of cities are setting net-zero targets, and a growing number of financial institutions are following suit. This September, China—the world's largest emitter today—surprised the world by announcing a commitment to reach carbon neutrality by 2060 at the latest. Over 125 other countries have made similar commitments or have already set a net-zero target into law.
This rising ambition is precisely what the Paris Agreement was set up to encourage. Some have criticized the deal as not having enough teeth; country commitments are voluntary and there are no legal penalties for failing to achieve targets. Instead, the hope and expectation was that as each year passed the benefits of a low-carbon future would become more evident and more affordable. This is happening, as evidenced by the ever-growing number of commitments to carbon neutrality by mid-century.
While the direction of travel is positive, doing better is not the same as doing enough. Indeed, climate change, once a far-off threat, has now reached our shores. It is here, now, and it affects everyone. To limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius —the threshold climate scientists agree will prevent the most severe climate impacts —the world needs to cut global emissions in half every decade between now and 2050. A new report from World Resources Institute and ClimateWorks Foundation finds that while significant progress is being made, the rate of change is still far too slow to keep temperatures in check.
The analysis found that to get on track for the emission cuts required by 2030, the world must accelerate the pace of adoption of renewable energy six times faster; phase out coal use for electricity five times faster; and accelerate the uptake of electric vehicles 22 times faster than current rates. When it comes to addressing deforestation and curbing emissions from agriculture the situation has sadly been getting worse, not better. We need to make a U-turn, and fast.
Incremental change is not enough. We need radical system-wide change. This will require enormous transitions across all major economic systems, including energy, transportation, infrastructure, food, manufacturing, finance and consumption. It will require governments, corporations and citizens to overcome deeply entrenched interests in our political current systems, which is still propped up by an increasingly shaky foundation of fossil fuels.
History has shown that transformative changes can happen at an exponential rate. Just look at how quickly cars, the internet, smart phones and, now, video conferencing have revolutionized our world. In recent years, renewable energy has advanced so much that solar and wind power are now the cheapest source of new power for two-thirds of the world's population. Or consider that the price of LED bulbs has plummeted so much that itsshare of the global lighting market has skyrocketed from 1% to 69% in just one decade, and it could reach 100% by 2025.
We are also learning that smart climate policies can producesignificant economic benefits, promoting economic efficiency, driving new technology and reducing risk and uncertainty. Recent research shows that bold climate action could yield a direct economic gain of at least US $26 trillion between now and 2030 compared with business-as-usual. Green investments such as in solar PV, building efficiency, public transit and ecosystem restoration create more jobs per dollar in the nearterm than similar investments in fossil fuels.
The commitments to net-zero emissions by mid-century are an important breakthrough, but to be credible they must be matched with firm commitments to cut emissions in the near-term. The United Kingdom -- president of the UN climate negotiations next year – just announced it will reduce emissions by 68% by 2030 from 1990 levels. The EU is also poised to approve anambitious 2030 target, while the incoming Biden-Harris administration will put forward a new national climate plan for the United States next year.
Decisions made over the next year will either steer us toward a safer and more resilient future or increase the likelihood of a climate catastrophe. With strong government leadership supported by businesses, investors and civil society, we can get on a better path. The vision of the Paris Agreement burns strongly. The future is ours to take.
Dr. Andrew Steer is the President and CEO of the World Resources Institute.
The views expressed in this article are the author's own.
