Participation of Belarus in Ukraine War Remains 'Unlikely': ISW

Following Russian President Vladimir Putin's first state visit to Belarus in three years this week, a leading military think tanks assessed that the vassal state is unlikely to be pressured into joining Russia's war in Ukraine.

After a series of Russian retreats on the battlefield in Ukraine's northeast and south, there is much speculation that Putin is expected to lobby Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk to do more to help Russia fight Ukraine. Belarus borders both countries, including a 700-mile border with Ukraine.

So far, Belarus has provided Russia with staging points to carry out ground invasions, airfields for missile and drone strikes, house military bases, and run hospitals to treat wounded service members.

Belarus was used by Russia to launch its invasion on Ukraine on February 24. The previous winter, more than 30,000 Russian troops went to Belarus in what Moscow claimed to be a joint training exercise but was in fact the pretext to the invasion.

"ISW continues to assess that Belarus' participation in Putin's war against Ukraine remains unlikely," the ISW said Tuesday in its daily assessment on the war. "The fact that Putin appears to have accepted Lukashenko's talking points without persuading Lukashenko to adjust them indirectly supports this assessment.

"Lukashenko would likely adjust his rhetoric to create some plausible explanation to his own people about why he was suddenly turning away from the fictitious NATO invasion threat he has manufactured to join Putin's disastrous invasion of Ukraine."

The ISW noted that the Kremlin attempted to hide Putin's "likely intentions" to pressure Lukashenko into further concessions regarding integration with Russia.

Newsweek has contacted the Belarusian Ministry of Defence for comment.

Belarus is heavily reliant on Russia. The country was part of the Soviet Union and, like Russia, has been sanctioned by Western countries over its involvement in the Ukraine war. Since Belarus became independent in 1991, it has maintained close economic and political ties to Russia.

Ukraine has been bolstering the defense of its northern border with Belarus over fears that Russia might be preparing a new attack from there, Deputy Interior Minister Yevhen Yenin told the BBC on Monday.

In an interview with The Economist published on December 15, top Ukrainian General Valery Zaluzhniy said Russia was preparing a new attack with 200,000 more troops that could come as early as January but is more likely to take place in the spring.

Meanwhile, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Monday expressed concern about Russia's military presence in Belarus.

"We have long been concerned by Belarus's role in Russia's aggression," Jean-Pierre said, referring to the support Lukashenko has offered to Putin to use his country as a staging ground for the war. "We continue to monitor Russia's force posture closely."

Washington will "remain in close contact with Ukraine" over its defense from Russian aggression, Jean-Pierre added.