Pentagon Documents Leak: What We Know So Far

Investigations are ongoing to determine the scope and source of leaked Pentagon documents that circulated online late last week.

Classified files detailing NATO military support for Kyiv, including evaluations of Ukraine's forces and its needs for launching a long-touted spring counteroffensive, surfaced on various social media sites ahead of the Easter weekend.

Many of the assessments were dated from the end of February and the beginning of March. The wide-ranging stock of documents covered Ukraine's capabilities, apparent United States surveillance and the Russian mercenary Wagner Group.

"We are aware of the reports of social media posts and the department is reviewing the matter," Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said on Friday.

The U.S. does not know whether the leak has been contained, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on Monday. "We truly don't," he told reporters.

The Pentagon and other agencies are still investigating the source of the leak, and the "scope of the issue," Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs Chris Meagher said on Monday. This includes reviewing how, and to whom, documents of this type are shown.

"We are also still trying to assess what might be out there," Meagher said. The Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into the leak.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was first briefed on what Meagher described as an apparent "unauthorized disclosure of classified material" on April 6. President Joe Biden was briefed last week, according to Kirby.

Who Leaked the Documents?

The documents circulated widely on various social media platforms, including 4Chan, Telegram and Twitter, but it has not yet been established just where they came from. CNN reported that the documents first appeared on Discord, with the social media platform telling the outlet it was cooperating with law enforcement.

Newsweek could not independently verify this.

In the immediate aftermath, Marina Miron, a post-doctoral researcher at the Department of War Studies at King's College London, told Newsweek that Russian intelligence agencies could be responsible for the leak, intended for a "psychological impact."

Such a move would "highly undermine" information sharing between Ukraine and its Western supporters, she added.

Philip Davies, professor of intelligence studies at Brunel University London, told Newsweek on Tuesday that Russian agencies could also be "blending authentic and deceptive materials to achieve credibility and do the maximum amount of damage."

The head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's office, Mykhailo Podolyak, seemed to blame Russian secret services, writing on Twitter that the "aim of secret data 'leaks' is obvious: divert attention, cast doubts & mutual suspicions, sow discord."

Three unnamed U.S. officials told Reuters on Friday that "Russia or pro-Russian elements" were likely behind the leak.

Moscow, in turn, said it was a "disease" that Russia was blamed for "everything."

"I cannot comment on this in any way," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Monday. "There is in fact a tendency to always blame everything on Russia. It is, in general, a disease."

Davies added: "The biggest problem is the lack of any direct knowledge of the provenance of the documents effectively makes validation difficult to impossible."

Doubts Over Authenticity

On Monday, Meagher said the Pentagon was still looking at the "veracity" of documents. Some of the documents do seem to "contain sensitive and highly classified material," he told the media.

The photographed documents appear to show files similar to those used in intelligence updates for U.S. senior leaders, including on Ukraine and Russia. However, "some of these images appear to have been altered," Meagher said.

Some of the documents had been "doctored," Kirby added.

At least one of the documents was "crudely edited," investigative news outlet Bellingcat reported last week. The outlet also said it had found evidence that some documents could have been posted months prior to the leak hitting the headlines. Some of the documents had been photographed and were visibly creased, with distinguishable items such as glue in the background.

At least one of the files lists Russian deaths in Ukraine as lower than counts publicly offered by U.S. officials.

Podolyak denounced the documents as "photoshop" and "virtual fake leaks," tweeting that Moscow was "eager to disrupt" a Ukrainian counteroffensive."

Zelensky's office later said the country's leadership was focusing on "measures to prevent the leakage of information regarding the plans" of Ukraine's armed forces.

"It would now appear that the leaked documents are at least partially real," Miron told Newsweek. However, there is also a competing feeling that "not everything that has been leaked might be authentic."

Nonetheless, it will make intelligence sharing "difficult for the time being," she added.

One unnamed official described as belonging to the Five Eyes intelligence alliance—a partnership between the U.S., U.K., Canada, Australia and New Zealand—told CNN that independent assessments were being conducted alongside the Pentagon investigation.

Ukraine 'Alters Counteroffensive Plans'

Ukraine has released few details around its long-anticipated counteroffensive, calling for silence on upcoming plans. But Russia's former president, Dmitry Medvedev, said last month that Russia's General Staff was "calculating" for a decided push from Kyiv.

One of the circulating leaked documents appeared to mark the start of April as the beginning of this counteroffensive period, and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told European media last week that a counteroffensive was expected in "the coming weeks."

The Kremlin later said its military had made a note of this comment.

Even if the documents were faked, it is better for Ukraine to be "safe than sorry" when it comes to counteroffensives strategies, Miron said.

Did Egypt Plan To Give Russia 40,000 Rockets?

In one section of a "top secret" document believed to be from February 17, Egypt's president reportedly sanctioned plans to send up to 40,000 rockets to Moscow without the knowledge of Western countries, The Washington Post reported.

The document, which circulated on Discord, includes an instruction from President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi to keep the rockets under wraps "to avoid problems with the West," according to the publication.

Egyptian foreign ministry spokesperson, Ahmed Abu Zeid, told the Post that his government's "position from the beginning is based on non-involvement in this crisis and committing to maintain equal distance with both sides while affirming Egypt's support to the U.N. charter and international law in the U.N. General Assembly resolutions."

He added: "We continue to urge both parties to cease hostilities and reach a political solution through negotiations."

Ukraine and South Korea

Some of the documents appear to have highlighted conflicting opinions in Seoul about sending weapons to Kyiv. South Korea has long said it will not supply lethal military aid to war zones.

One document, seen by the BBC, showed a "sensitive conversation" between two of President Yoon Suk Yeol's advisers.

Seoul rejected the authenticity of the documents on Tuesday, with Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo saying both Seoul and Washington believed the leaked information had been "altered."

The documents also raised questions about how the alleged conversations were reported.

The South Korean president's office said "the allegations of an eavesdropping breach are completely untrue," adding it was "requesting an appropriate response from the U.S.," according to The Washington Post.

A Pentagon spokesperson told Newsweek on Tuesday that it had no further comment on the leaked documents, pointing to Meagher's comments made on Monday.

Update 04/11/23, 11:24 a.m. ET: This article was updated with a response from the Pentagon.

Update 04/13/23, 8:30 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comments from Philip Davies.