Pentagon Report Warns Kim Jong Un Leadership Won't Survive if He Uses Nukes

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Amid a series of escalations across the Korean Peninsula, the first new U.S. military strategy released under President Joe Biden has warned North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un that his government would not "survive" in the event that he used a nuclear weapon.

The Pentagon jointly released on Thursday three major policy documents, the National Defense Strategy, the Nuclear Posture Review and the Missile Defense Review. The reports outlined a range of measures the United States was taking to deter and defend against a number of challenges, including those posed by China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.

But after another critical Biden administration policy piece, the National Security Strategy, gave only brief mention of North Korea earlier this month, U.S. officials went further in-depth in this latest release, issuing a direct and explicit threat to Pyongyang.

"Our strategy for North Korea recognizes the threat posed by its nuclear, chemical, missile, and conventional capabilities, and in particular the need to make clear to the Kim regime the dire consequences should it use nuclear weapons," the Nuclear Posture Review stated.

"Any nuclear attack by North Korea against the United States or its Allies and partners is unacceptable and will result in the end of that regime," it stated. "There is no scenario in which the Kim regime could employ nuclear weapons and survive."

DPRK, Kim, Jong, Un, watches, nuke, units
North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un watches exercises conducted September 25 to October 9 by units of the Korean People's Army tasked with deploying tactical nuclear weapons. Korean Central News Agency

The language was some of the starkest yet from the U.S., as tensions between Washington and Pyongyang mounted toward levels not seen since 2017, a year of nuclear-fueled threats between Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump. By early 2018, the two men joined South Korean President Moon-Jae for a historic peace process that produced a record number of high-level summits, but ultimately unraveled without a lasting peace deal being reached.

Now, with new leaders in Washington and Seoul professing a need for a more robust military alliance including joint exercises, Pyongyang has only ramped up its military activities, testing long-range and more advanced platforms designed to carry smaller, tactical nuclear weapons. Recent weeks have also seen a rise in border alerts, including North Korean aircraft and vessels approaching the disputed boundaries between the two Koreas, including one incident earlier this week resulting in both sides firing warning shots.

Even short of nuclear attacks, the U.S. report also warned that "North Korea can also conduct rapid strategic attacks in East Asia," and these too would be deterred through the U.S. nuclear arsenal.

"The United States nuclear weapons continue to play a role in deterring such attacks," it added. "Further, we will hold the regime responsible for any transfers it makes of nuclear weapons technology, material, or expertise to any state or non-state actors."

The document also referenced the Biden administration's offer to hold talks with North Korea, a policy that the report said "calls for a calibrated diplomatic approach to secure practical progress that increases the security of the United States, our Allies and partners, and deployed forces."

"At the same time, we will continue to press North Korea to comply with its obligations under various United Nations Security Council resolutions and return to negotiations to verifiably eliminate its nuclear program," the report added. "With respect to reducing or eliminating the threat from North Korea, our goal remains the complete and verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula."

North Korea was also mentioned in the two other documents released concurrently on Thursday, demonstrating a focus for the Biden administration's military strategy.

The National Defense Strategy said that North Korea continues to expand its nuclear and missile capability to threaten the U.S. homeland, deployed U.S. forces, and the Republic of Korea (ROK) and Japan, while seeking to drive wedges between the United States-ROK and United States-Japan Alliances."

The Pentagon's approach, according to report, would be to "continue to deter attacks through forward posture; integrated air and missile defense; close coordination and interoperability with our ROK Ally; nuclear deterrence; resilience initiatives; and the potential for direct cost imposition approaches that come from globally deployable Joint Forces."

And the Missile Defense Review went into further detail about North Korea's advancing arsenal, outlining launch patterns since 2017, the Pyongyang tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and sixth, most powerful nuclear weapons test. Kim has since shown off an even larger ICBM, held his first ICBM test this year and has openly begun honing North Korea's hypersonic missile prowess.

The report said such threats to the U.S. itself were counteracted by the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) missile interception system, based in Alaska and California. But "as North Korean ballistic missile threats to the U.S. homeland continue to evolve, the United States is committed to improving the capability and reliability of the GMD system," according to the report, including through updates such as the Next Generation Interceptor (NGI).

"In addition to the GMD system," the review added, "the United States will leverage and improve its full spectrum of missile defeat capabilities, complemented by the credible threat of direct cost imposition through nuclear and non-nuclear means, to continue to counter North Korean missile threats to the homeland."

This is a developing news story. More information will be added as it becomes available.

About the writer

Based in his hometown of Staten Island, New York City, Tom O'Connor is an award-winning Senior Writer of Foreign Policy and Deputy Editor of National Security and Foreign Policy at Newsweek, where he specializes in covering the Middle East, North Korea, China, Russia and other areas of international affairs, relations and conflict. He has previously written for International Business Times, the New York Post, the Daily Star (Lebanon) and Staten Island Advance. His works have been cited in more than 1,800 academic papers, government reports, books, news articles and other forms of research and media from across the globe. He has contributed analysis to a number of international outlets and has participated in Track II diplomacy related to the Middle East as well as in fellowships at The Korea Society and Foreign Press Center Japan. Follow @ShaolinTom for daily news on X and his official Facebook page. Email t.oconnor@newsweek.com with tips or for media commentary and appearances. Languages: English and Arabic


Based in his hometown of Staten Island, New York City, Tom O'Connor is an award-winning Senior Writer of Foreign Policy ... Read more