Poland Missile Strike—What We Know and What We Don't 

Poland has said that a Russian-made missile landed on its territory near its border with Ukraine, killing two people, but the latest U.S. intelligence suggests that the strike was the result of a partial intercept of a Russian missile by a Ukrainian air defense system.

The missile fell in the NATO-member country on Tuesday at 3.40 p.m. local time outside Przewodów, a rural village located about four miles (6.4 kilometers) west of the Ukrainian border. This coincided with a barrage of Russian missile strikes across Ukraine, and came against the backdrop of the G-20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia.

It remains unclear who fired the missile, or where it was launched from. However, the incident has been decried by Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky as "a very significant escalation" amid the ongoing war, which began after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February.

However, Polish President Andrzej Duda tweeted that the incident appeared to be an "unfortunate accident" rather than an "intentional attack."

Jens Stoltenberg, NATO secretary-general, said in a statement: "An investigation into this incident is ongoing, and we need to await its outcome. But we have no indication that this was the result of a deliberate attack. And we have no indication that Russia is preparing offensive military actions against NATO.

"Our preliminary analysis suggests that the incident was likely caused by a Ukrainian air defense missile fired to defend Ukrainian territory against Russian cruise missile attacks.

"But let me be clear. This is not Ukraine's fault. Russia bears ultimate responsibility, as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine."

As Poland is a NATO member, the incident has sparked concerns that the conflict in Ukraine could escalate into a new world war.

Russia has denied any involvement in the Poland missile strike, while U.S. President Joe Biden told reporters in Bali, where he was meeting with G7 leaders, that there was "preliminary" evidence to indicate that the projectile was not fired from Russia.

Meanwhile, three anonymous U.S. officials told the Associated Press that preliminary assessments suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile amid a wave of missile attacks on western Ukraine on Tuesday.

Below is what has been said about the Poland missile strike so far.

Poland

Poland has said it is investigating the deadly missile blast and placed its military on high alert after an emergency national security council meeting.

"There has been a decision to raise the state of readiness of some combat units and other uniformed services," spokesman Piotr Muller told reporters. "Our services are on the ground at the moment working out what happened."

The Polish Foreign Ministry initially issued a statement saying that a "Russian-made" rocket fell on its territory.

President Duda later said that it remains uncertain who launched the missile.

"We know that the Russian missile attack against Ukraine continued all day long. But we don't have any definitive proof of who launched this rocket," Duda said. "Investigations are underway. I believe the investigators will find out. Most likely, it was a Russian-made rocket. But everything is still being figured out."

He later clarified that it appeared to be an accident rather than an attack.

Polish officials said that the country will likely invoke NATO's Article 4, which allows members to consult whether the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened.

Russia

The Kremlin has denied involvement in the missile blast.

In a statement late Tuesday, Russia's Defense Ministry called Polish media reports "a deliberate provocation in order to escalate the situation."

The ministry also said that images of the scene published by media outlets in Poland "have nothing to do with Russian weapons."

Ukraine

Zelensky spoke with Duda by phone on Tuesday, and offered his condolences after reports emerged that two people had been killed in Poland by the missile strike.

In his evening address to the nation, the Ukrainian president said that the strike was evidence that "terror is not limited by our state borders."

"Russian missiles hit Poland. How many times has Ukraine said that a terrorist state will not limit itself to our country? It is a matter of time before Russian terror goes further," Zelensky said. "This is a Russian missile attack on collective security! This is a very significant escalation. We must act."

Ukraine's Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov meanwhile said in a statement on Twitter: "This is the reality we've been warning about. We were asking to close the sky, because sky has no borders…Gloves are off. Time to win."

NATO ambassadors are expected to hold an emergency meeting chaired by Stoltenberg on Wednesday morning to discuss the strike.

Newsweek has contacted Russian, Ukrainian and Polish authorities for comment.

Updated 11/16/22 9:20 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional comments from Andrzej Duda and Jens Stoltenberg.