Ron DeSantis Stronger Than Donald Trump in Swing States, Poll Reveals

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Giulia Carbonaro is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on the U.S. economy, housing market, property insurance market, local and national politics. She has previously extensively covered U.S. and European politics. Giulia joined Newsweek in 2022 from CGTN Europe and had previously worked at the European Central Bank. She is a graduate in Broadcast Journalism from Nottingham Trent University and holds a Bachelor's degree in Politics and International Relations from Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Italy. She speaks English, Italian, and a little French and Spanish. You can get in touch with Giulia by emailing: g.carbonaro@newsweek.com.

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A recent poll shows support for Ron DeSantis as the Republican candidate in the 2024 presidential election is stronger than support for Donald Trump in key swing states, with the Florida governor predicted to be able to defeat Joe Biden there in 2024—unlike the embattled former president.

The poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies and released on June 20, shows DeSantis beating President Biden in Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, with 47, 46 and 48 percent of the vote against the president's estimated 45, 40, and 45 percent, respectively, in each state.

Trump, according to the same poll, would be defeated by Biden in all three states when voters were presented with hypothetical presidential election match-ups.

In Pennsylvania, Biden had 48 percent of the vote against Trump's 44 percent. In Arizona, Biden gathered 44 percent of the vote against Trump's 41 percent, and in Georgia, the incumbent would receive 47 percent of the vote against his potential challenger's 44 percent.

Ron DeSantis
In this composite picture, former president Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. A recent poll showed that DeSantis could beat Biden in swing states, unlike Trump. But some questioned the reliability of the poll. Getty Images

Biden beat Trump by fine margins in all three states in the 2020 presidential election and they were crucial in securing him the White House.

The poll was conducted between June 17 and 19 among a sample of 500 eligible voters in each state. It asked respondents who, among all Republican contenders for the 2024 presidential election, they thought would be able to beat Biden.

In Arizona, DeSantis appeared to be the nominee that respondents thought had the highest chance of beating the president, with 53 percent of people saying he could against 35 who said he could not. Some 52 percent of respondents said Trump could beat Biden, while 43 percent thought he could not.

In Pennsylvania, the same question led to 53 percent of respondents saying Trump could beat Biden and 44 percent said he couldn't, while 52 percent believed DeSantis could beat Biden and 42 percent thought he would not be able to.

In Georgia, respondents also had more faith in DeSantis beating Biden than Trump, with 54 percent saying that the Florida governor could win over the current president and 51 percent thinking Trump could do the same.

But the results of the polls, which appear clearly positive for DeSantis, have been questioned by some on social media, with one suggesting that the sample of population examined by the poll was too small to be faithful to reality.

"Love the results here... but only 500 RV's? The margin of error on these polls is enormous," wrote one. The margin of error in the poll was 4.38 percent.

While Trump declared he was going to run for the 2024 election shortly after the November midterms, DeSantis announced his bid for the presidency in May, months after he was first rumored to be joining the race.

In the crowd of Republican primary hopefuls that has built up in the past few months, DeSantis has emerged as a clear second and Trump's main challenger.

DeSantis' strategy appears to be to try to pick off Republican voters who aren't already sided with Trump.

The Florida governor has avoided presenting himself as anti-Trump, showing instead he would be a continuation of Trump in terms of politics and attitude—a strategy that experts think could not work for DeSantis, and would make it harder for him to collect more votes than the former president.

The latest national polling average compiled by FiveThirtyEight shows that Trump is still leading the Republican primary race, with DeSantis trailing quite far behind the former president. As of June 22, Trump could count on 52.5 percent of the vote, while DeSantis had the support of 21.3 percent of voters, according to FiveThirtyEight.

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About the writer

Giulia Carbonaro is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on the U.S. economy, housing market, property insurance market, local and national politics. She has previously extensively covered U.S. and European politics. Giulia joined Newsweek in 2022 from CGTN Europe and had previously worked at the European Central Bank. She is a graduate in Broadcast Journalism from Nottingham Trent University and holds a Bachelor's degree in Politics and International Relations from Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Italy. She speaks English, Italian, and a little French and Spanish. You can get in touch with Giulia by emailing: g.carbonaro@newsweek.com.

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Giulia Carbonaro is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on the U.S. economy, housing market, property ... Read more