Prigozhin's Mutiny Will Lead to Putin's Downfall—Russian Ex-Diplomat

A former Russian diplomat who resigned in protest at Moscow's war in Ukraine has said he believes Yevgeny Prigozhin's mutiny attempt on June 24 will ultimately lead to the downfall of President Vladimir Putin.

Boris Bondarev became Russia's first and only diplomat to publicly quit over Putin's war in Ukraine in May 2022. The former member of Russia's delegation to the United Nations in Geneva said in an open letter that the war is "not only a crime against the Ukrainian people, but also, perhaps, the most serious crime against the people of Russia."

"The beginning of the end of Putin started when he invaded Ukraine," Bondarev told Newsweek in an interview on Tuesday. "His war was from the very beginning doomed. This mutiny is just another step."

Prigozhin's aborted mutiny, which saw the Wagner Group boss take control of two military hubs in southern Russia and advance within 120 miles of Moscow as part of a "march of justice" against the country's military leadership, was "damaging" to Putin, the former diplomat said.

The uprising, which lasted less than 24 hours, showed that "[Putin's] regime can be toppled very easily," said Bondarev.

The Wagner chief said on June 24 that his forces faced no resistance as they advanced from southern Russia to the capital. The head of the Russian National Guard, Viktor Zolotov, said Tuesday that Moscow concentrated all forces on the defense of the city "otherwise they would have passed through us like a knife through butter."

Putin's Diminished Credibility

"I think Putin and his people, they [understand] that it was intentionally political, that was a direct threat to them," said Bondarev of Prigozhin's mutiny attempt.

"Putin is very concerned," he said, pointing to the Russian leader's addresses to the nation in the aftermath of Prigozhin's uprising.

"Putin could have used these statements to distract people's attention from this situation with Wagner—something that would make people forget this mutiny. But he apparently was so concerned about it, he felt obliged to say as firmly as he could that this mutiny was suppressed, that order had been restored."

The Russian president "didn't look very confident" or "convincing," said Bondarev.

"If you have to say that you're still powerful, it makes people feel that you are lying, that you are not as powerful as you want to be," he said. "It underlines the loss of his credibility as a dictator and as someone who can arbitrate the disputes of his entourage."

The Kremlin announced that it was Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, not Putin, who brokered a deal with Prigozhin to avoid "bloodshed." The Kremlin said that deal would see Prigozhin leave for Belarus, and a criminal case against him for armed mutiny be dropped.

Putin has effectively welcomed "new rebels" with his response to Prigozhin's uprising, said Bondarev.

"I believe he's personally afraid of what happened because he didn't anticipate it, and he's afraid of looking weak, but he cannot do anything."

Putin's Downfall

The Russian elite is growing more frustrated with the Russian president as his war drags on, and this atmosphere will eventually lead to a general consensus that Putin must be ousted from power, said Bondarev.

"This war [has been going on for] one and a half years already, so it has been quite a slow process...a process of deterioration, and the situation is changing," he said.

"Slowly the disappointment and anger and irritation among the elite has been growing, but this Prigozhin thing, I think, has given great impetus to this and people start understanding and realizing in a more clear way that the situation is very wrong, it is very unhealthy."

Bondarev added: "So the situation will lead eventually to the great understanding that Putin must go. In the future, we will see more and more maybe not rebellions, but this talk behind Putin's back."

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry via email for comment.

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