Prigozhin Is 'Not Safe' From Putin in Belarus, Resistance Says

A member of the Belarus opposition in exile has said that partisans, activists, and officials aligned with the Belarusian pro-democratic movement are planning a "warm welcome" for any Wagner Group mercenaries who relocate to the Kremlin-allied nation as part of Yevgeny Prigozhin's deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Franak Viacorka—the chief political adviser of exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya—told Newsweek that any Wagner troops settling in Belarus will be caught between a vengeful Kremlin and hostile locals, including influential figures within the country's military and security establishments.

Prigozhin and thousands of his Wagner fighters are reportedly planning to settle in Belarus following their short-lived insurrection against the Russian military authorities in June. Though Putin denounced the uprising as "treason" and threatened retribution, Prigozhin was offered a deal to leave Russia under the protection of Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko.

"We don't see that Prigozhin will stay for a long time," Viacorka said in an interview. "It's not safe in Belarus."

"Belarus is under Putin's control, and if Putin will order Prigozhin to be killed...it will happen. Belarus is not a safe place, and Belarusian people will not make it a safe place for Prigozhin either."

Prigozhin's fighters were given the choice to leave Russia with him or sign contracts with the regular Russian military. Moscow is now seeking to fully nationalize the Wagner structure and strip Prigozhin of his media empire. But reports have also emerged suggesting the group is still recruiting new fighters and continuing long-established and lucrative operations abroad.

It remains unclear how many Wagner fighters might accompany "Putin's chef"—a nickname given to Prigozhin due to the fortune he made from Kremlin catering contracts—will accompany the oligarch into exile.

Recent satellite images by Planet Labs have revealed potential military bases capable of housing thousands of troops in Belarus, raising concerns in Europe of a highly effective and semi-autonomous fighting force within a few hours' drive of European Union and NATO frontiers.

European diplomats have told Newsweek they are "watching and assessing" new Wagner arrivals in the country, fearing fresh provocations along their shared borders with Belarus.

For the Belarusian opposition, the arrival of Wagner troops will mean a new chapter in a recent history of an increased Russian military presence.

"This creates a very new reality for us, because these are not regular Russian soldiers," Viacorka said. "These are mercenaries, they're criminals, former prisoners, and their status is still unknown."

"Lukashenko promised them some legalization, but what that means in practice, we don't know. We see that they are building some bases, military bases, for Wagner troops. It seems there will be a few thousand of them."

"Lukashenko thinks that he will use Wagner and Prigozhin as his personal guard and protection, but I think Prigozhin has other plans," Viacorka added. "His appetite is much bigger than Belarus. And he will try to [overthrow] Putin again. Another putsch cannot be excluded. It's not over yet, at least there is such feeling within Belarus."

Russia's situation in Ukraine has offered new opportunity for the Belarusian opposition movement, which was violently suppressed by Lukashenko—with significant support from Moscow—following the country's disputed 2020 presidential election. With Lukashenko's beleaguered regime now tied to an increasingly isolated and apparently unstable Kremlin, Europe's "last dictator" faces a difficult long-term outlook.

But despite Moscow's disastrous war, claimed dissent within Lukashenko's powerful military and security services, and an established partisan network inside Belarus, Minsk is pulling closer to the Kremlin, not least by agreeing to host Russian tactical nuclear weapons.

Viacorka predicted that Wagner's potential introduction into Belarus' delicate political balance will mean more trouble for Lukashenko. The adviser also urged Western nations to tighten sanctions on Minsk, pursue charges through the International Criminal Court, and recognize Tsikhanouskaya as the legitimate representative of a democratic Belarus.

"What we've heard here from the ground is that the Belarusian military is not very excited about the Wagner Group," he said. "There is big opposition to this idea. It seems that Lukashenko, when this idea came out, did not consult with anyone."

"It's very possible there will be a conflict between the Belarusian military, secret services, and special forces, and between Wagner groups as well. They will not be integrated."

Though Prigozhin himself might not stay long in Belarus, Viacorka claimed his followers may. "Wagner's people will try to have their bases in Belarus to recruit people, they continue to recruit in Russia," he said. "They will be starting recruitment in Belarus to use its infrastructure. But definitely there will be more tensions, more conflicts with time. It's not sustainable."

"We will try right now to collect information about moods within the military. We will speak with our partisans, with our activists on the ground on what possibly can be organized to meet Prizoghin's thugs and criminals."

"We will try to ensure a 'warm welcome' for Prigozhin's people."

Newsweek has contacted the Belarusian Foreign Ministry by email to request comment.