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The group of 30 progressive Democrats led by Rep. Pramila Jayapal, who signed a letter urging President Joe Biden to engage directly with the Kremlin to end the war in Ukraine and "avoid a prolonged conflict" has been blasted as "exceedingly naive" by analysts.
The Congressional Progressive Caucus intervened in the debate raised by the letter on Monday evening, saying that Democrats were united in their "unequivocal commitment to supporting Ukraine in their fight for their democracy and freedom in the face of the illegal and outrageous Russian invasion, and nothing in the letter advocates for a change in that support."
Mark Pocan, one of the signatories of the Congressional Progressive Caucus letter, said the letter from the 30 progressive Democrats was written in July and he had "no idea why it went out now," adding that it was bad timing.
"It was trying to get to a cease-fire & diplomacy as others were banging war drums, not criticizing Biden," Pocan wrote on Twitter, adding that people had "over-analyzed" the letter.
In the contentious letter addressed to the president published on Monday, 30 congressional Democrats—who include members of the so-called progressive wing dubbed "the squad," Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib and Ayanna Pressley—called for the U.S. to continue supporting Kyiv with military assistance and weapons while also making a "proactive diplomatic push" to arrange a ceasefire.
"Given the destruction created by this war for Ukraine and the world, as well as the risk of catastrophic escalation, we […] believe it is in the interests of Ukraine, the United States, and the world to avoid a prolonged conflict," the letter to Biden reads.
"For this reason, we urge you to pair the military and economic support the United States has provided to Ukraine with a proactive diplomatic push, redoubling efforts to seek a realistic framework for a ceasefire."
The representatives write that the U.S. military aid to Kyiv, funded with "tens of billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars," gives the country a responsibility "to seriously consider all possible avenues, including direct engagement with Russia."
In closing the letter, the signatories urge Biden "to explore prospects for a new European security arrangement acceptable to all parties that will allow for a sovereign and independent Ukraine, and, in coordination with our Ukrainian partners, seek a rapid end to the conflict and reiterate this goal as America's chief priority."
Mark Hertling, a former U.S. top general in Europe, called the 30 representatives "exceedingly naive" in assuming that Russia could ever accept an arrangement that recognizes a sovereign Ukraine.
Kyiv Independent journalist Anastasiia Lapatina agrees.
"Russia operates on a completely different set of assumptions about the world and this war," wrote Lapatina on Twitter. "They want Ukraine crushed, not independent. They have never accepted our independence, and they won't start now. Our subjugation is their fundamental goal. Diplomacy will not change that."
"The 'squad' and its members seem to have little grasp of the realities of foreign policy, or the war in Ukraine," Kenton White, a lecturer in Strategic Studies and International Relations at the University of Reading in the U.K., told Newsweek.
"They appear to be approaching the problem from a purely parochial sense, appealing to internal national politics rather than understanding the imperatives obtaining in Europe. They will be seen by many in Europe as out-of-touch, or even deliberately attempting to disconnect the U.S. from Europe. For example, Pramila Jayapal is certainly no friend to some of the Eastern European nations and this may influence the thrust of the letter.
"If the U.S. is to demonstrate its support for the rule-of-law in international affairs, it must be seen to reject all forms of illegal war. Failing to stand for the rule-of-law will severely weaken its standing internationally, and will undermine its assurances to NATO and other allies that the U.S. is a strong supporter of the rules-based system."
Marina Miron from the Defence Studies Department of King's College London, told Newsweek that the letter shows divisions within Ukraine's biggest donor country that might be exploited by Russia.
"These divisions will most likely be exploited by Russia's information warfare, disinformation campaigns and propaganda to draw a great wedge between the two camps and to antagonize supporters of each camp," Miron said.
"Creating chaos and unrest is the main aim of such information warfare and these divisions present an excellent opportunity for the Kremlin. Moreover, the current lack of consensus in the U.S. might influence the European politicians and their decision-making as they too would be hard hit should the U.S. decrease its help, knowing that they are at the very edge now and would not be able to shoulder the burden.
"This might also ignite political voices within Europe who were against the help. So, for the allies these divisions in the U.S. might have serious ramifications which Russia will try to amplify in the information spectrum, possibly inciting domestic unrest—something the European politicians are aware of and are preparing for.
"Should that happen on a large scale, it remains to be seen what will be on the top of their political agendas. Ukraine will most likely move down the priority ladder."
Miron added that: "Russia is impatiently awaiting the midterm elections in November" to find out if support for Ukraine will wane.
"There is a clear understanding that Ukraine's success or failure depend on foreign help," Miron said. "Given that the winter is looming, and that Ukrainians' economy was crumbling even before the Kremlin started targeting Ukraine's critical infrastructure, any decrease in aid would mean a death sentence for Ukraine."
Dante Atkins, founder and principal of Atkins Strategies, LLC, a strategic communications company based in Washington, D.C., said the letter "will make its way to Russian state media within the next day or two as evidence of fracturing solidarity among politicians in Biden's own party for his support of Ukraine," encouraging Putin to prolong the war further.
"The letter just told Putin and Lavrov that their strategy is working. They now have incentive to conduct further atrocities in Ukraine, do even more damage to global supply chains, and keep that war machine going as long as they can," Atkins wrote on Twitter.
Other analysts have minimized the importance of the letter.
Daniel W. Drezner described it as a "giant nothingburger," saying that there's "no bargain that will be struck" that meets the conditions suggested by the 30 progressive Democrats: ending the war while preserving a free and independent Ukraine."
About the writer
Giulia Carbonaro is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on the U.S. economy, housing market, property ... Read more