Putin Avoiding Events Amid 'Increasing Criticism,' Military Failures: ISW

Russian President Vladimir Putin is avoiding public events over concerns that he may be unable to effectively sell his narrative on the war in Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

An ISW report published on Wednesday indicates that Putin may not deliver an important address to the Russian State Duma, which has been compared to the U.S. State of the Union address, until next year amid mounting criticism of the war. The Russian president last gave the address in April 2021. ISW said Putin is "uncertain of his ability to shape the Russian information space" but may still hope to deliver a "grandiose victory speech in 2023."

"Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin may deliver his address to the Federation Assembly in 2023 and called on Russians to stop 'fortune-telling with coffee grounds' regarding the timing of the next address," the ISW report says. "The Russian withdrawal from Kyiv Oblast and northern Ukraine in April 2022 likely spoiled Putin's plans to declare victory during the Federation Assembly address."

The speech was likely postponed initially over "military failures," ISW said, while sustained criticism of Putin's partial troops mobilization, annexation of Ukrainian regions that Russia does not control and other actions during the war could be responsible for the continued postponement. The report speculates that Putin is avoiding the speech because it would force him to "admit that Russia cannot achieve his frequently restated maximalist aims in Ukraine."

Peskov announced this week that Putin was canceling his annual end-of-year press conference. No reason for the cancellation was given, although the spokesman said "the president will still find an opportunity" to speak with journalists.

ISW suggested on Wednesday that the press conference decision was probably "an attempt to avoid answering questions about Russia's military failures without resorting to excessively obvious manipulation of questioners and questions."

"Putin appears to be increasingly turning to scripted and pre-recorded appearances," ISW said. "The cancellation of the press conference, however, may undermine Putin's populist appeal as a ruler in touch with his population."

The decisions to cancel Putin's press conference and to continue to postpone his Duma address come amid reports of heavy Russian casualties and low soldier morale in Ukraine.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shared a video to Facebook on Wednesday that purportedly shows "frightened" Russian soldiers running away from the Ukrainian military in a wooded area before explosions ignite. Ukraine claimed that 740 Russian troops were killed on Wednesday alone.

Earlier this week, a captured Russian soldier claimed to have witnessed the execution of fellow troops who displayed fear on the battlefield, while the commander of a depleted Russian regiment in Ukraine issued a video appeal for supplies to help his "freezing" and nearly "naked" soldiers.

Newsweek has reached out to the Russian government for comment.