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Vladimir Putin's announcement that Moscow would mobilize up to 300,000 reservists was seen as a significant escalation of the war efforts in Ukraine, but the Russian president had allegedly been planning the move nearly four months before the decision was publicized in September.
Vadym Skibitsky, Ukraine's deputy intelligence chief, told The Kyiv Independent on Wednesday that Putin had been conducting "covert mobilization" since May when Russian troops had not defeated Ukrainian forces as quickly as the Kremlin anticipated.
Skibitsky's remarks suggest that Putin had been plotting for mobilization of Russian citizens long before last month's announcement, which prompted hundreds of thousands of military-aged men to flee Russia before they could be drafted into the war.
Since Putin's September 21 announcement, more than 355,000 people have left the country, according to reports from independent Russian media. More than 200,000 men have escaped to Kazakhstan alone.
As of Tuesday, Russia has conscripted 200,000 personnel, according to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
Throughout the invasion, Putin had avoided a general mobilization—a move likely to be unpopular at home and likely to suggest Moscow's desperation to seek bodies to combat its defeats in Ukraine. September saw Ukraine's counteroffensive operation make a series of successful gains against Russian occupying forces.
Protests and criticisms, even among some Kremlin loyalists, sparked by Russia's first draft since World War II have resulted in a chaotic mobilization process.
The governor of Russia's Khabarovsk region said on Monday that about half of those recruited into the army had been sent home due to wrongful mobilization.
"Out of several thousand of our compatriots who had received a summons and arrived at military enlistment offices in the past 10 days, around half have returned home for failing to meet the selection criteria," Governor Mikhail Degtyaryov told The Moscow Times.
Top defense officials, like retired four-star U.S. General David Petraeus, have warned that mobilization won't be enough to help Putin win the war in Ukraine.
"Putin cannot do anything to reverse [the situation in Ukraine]. Partial mobilization resulted in more people leaving Russia than show[ing] up at the subscription points," Petraeus said at this week's Warsaw Security Forum.
Russian official Dmitry Baltrukov also told Newsweek that Putin is "definitely closer to the end of his power" now that he's announced the partial mobilization of the population.
"At least one hundred thousand Russians voted 'with their feet' after leaving the country. I see a lot of words of support for my anti-war position," Baltrukov said. "But one must understand that there is an atmosphere of fear in Russia now. People speaking out against the war is extremely dangerous."
Newsweek reached out to Russia's foreign ministry for comment.
About the writer
Katherine Fung is a Newsweek senior reporter based in New York City. She has covered U.S. politics and culture extensively. ... Read more