Putin's Border Dilemma

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be in a bind.

Moscow's forces are facing two Ukrainian offensives: one a relatively small cross-border incursion that has seen Kyiv-aligned Russian fighters occupy settlements on Russian territory, and a second long-awaited major counteroffensive that Kyiv hopes will liberate significant occupied Ukrainian territory.

The first is a humiliation for Putin and his military, suggesting that the national border is lightly defended and that Russians living in border regions are not safe. The second poses a strategic threat, and if successful could puncture Putin's ambition to incorporate swaths of southern and eastern Ukraine.

It appears Moscow is "trapped" between the two simultaneous problems, Oleg Ignatov, the Crisis Group think tank's senior Russia analyst, told Newsweek.

"It seems that they don't have a choice right now," Ignatov said of Russian planners. "They understand that the Ukrainians are trying to distract them and their resources. They want to cause a Russian reaction. They want the Russians to redeploy forces from Ukraine to protect the border."

"They can't redeploy a lot of forces to the Belgorod region because it will make their positions weaker in the south of Ukraine and in the Donbas. Yes, the Russians fortified there a lot, but all of these preparations and fortifications don't mean anything without soldiers."

Border Trouble

Foreign observers and ultranationalist Russian bloggers have been surprised by the success of the cross-border raids, launched in recent weeks by Freedom of Russian Legion and Russian Volunteer Corps units, which have been fighting alongside Ukrainian troops against Moscow's invasion.

As of Monday, thousands of residents of Russia's western Belgorod region have been evacuated amid continued fighting, which included Russian shelling of occupied settlements. The pro-Ukraine fighters even claimed to have captured Russian soldiers and have offered to negotiate a prisoner exchange deal.

"The dissonant Russian responses to and reporting about the limited raid in Belgorod Oblast continue to suggest that the Russian leadership has not yet decided how to react to these limited cross-border raids," the Institute for the Study of War's Sunday bulletin read.

The slow and so far unsuccessful Russian response may speak to a priority to defend occupied territory in Ukraine, Ignatov said, suggesting the recent fighting on Russian soil is an embarrassment for the Kremlin and the military.

"They are trying to diminish the effect of this situation," Ignatov explained. "They say that nothing special is happening, and I think their behavior shows that they don't expect that the Ukrainian army would invade Belgorod region or Kursk regions."

But even if Kyiv does not look to expand the incursion, the raids put Moscow in a tricky spot.

"The frontline is very long, it's about 1,300 kilometers [800 miles]," Ignatov said. "They can't cover all of the frontline. They deployed almost all their forces in Donbas and in the south of Ukraine. This means that they expect the Ukrainian offensive there, either in Donbas or in the Zaporizhzhia region."

"It shows their weakness," Ignatov added. "The reaction of the authorities has been very weak. They started the evacuation of the people there late. It would be reasonable to evacuate all the people from the border line, because if the Russians who fight with the Ukrainians can invade the Russian territories, they can attack [border settlements]. It's a big risk for the civil population."

Domestic Trouble

The incursions have incensed ultranationalist, pro-war bloggers and media figures who have long been urging the Kremlin to intensify its war on Ukraine. Combined with ongoing suspected drone strikes and sabotage actions deep inside Russia, the border fighting further undermines the regular Russian military.

"The limited raids and border shelling in Belgorod Oblast are increasingly becoming the current focal point for criticism against the Russian military leadership," the ISW wrote.

Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin—who has been a thorn in the side of the regular military hierarchy throughout the Kremlin's so-called "special military operation"—has said his mercenaries are ready to step in if needed.

"The only thing we will be asking for is ammunition," the oligarch-turned-warlord wrote on Twitter. "If the Ministry of Defense does not stop what is happening in the Belgorod region soon, then, of course, we will come to the Belgorod region and protect our Russian people and all those who live there."

Igor Girkin—the former Federal Security Service (FSB) officer who was instrumental in Russia's aggression against Ukraine in 2014, and has since become a highly influential blogger who is often critical of the Kremlin's strategic and tactical failings in Ukraine—has warned that Moscow has been too slow to respond to the Belgorod raids.

"They are moving on to solving the main task—to undermine the Russian Federation from the inside," Girkin wrote on Telegram of Ukraine's armed forces, noting Kyiv's formations have spent months reinforcing and training even while beating back Moscow's ill-fated winter offensive.

"What better way to turn the civilian population against the authorities than the unpunished murder of this population and the destruction of its property by enemies, whom for many years official propaganda humiliated in every possible way?" Girkin wrote.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.