Putin Faces Another Setback in Ukraine War—The Weather

Estimates of projected weather in Ukraine show Europe might experience a mild winter, potentially throwing a wrench in Russian President Vladimir Putin's plans to use Ukraine's harsh winters to his benefit.

Two weeks ago, a Russian politician suggested on state TV that the Kremlin should target Ukraine's energy supply, causing civilians to freeze and starve. Throughout October, Russia has increased its attacks on civilian infrastructure, targeting the electrical grid and plummeting parts of Ukraine into darkness and leaving some residents without a water supply. However, as winter approaches, new reports show Russia's plans to use cold weather to its advantage may not pan out as planned.

Last week, news organization Visegrád tweeted that new predictions from Poland's Center of Numerical Weather Prediction of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management show Europe experiencing a mild winter.

"This neutralises many of Putin's hybrid warfare tactics including his attempts to weaponise energy and ramp prices further up,"Visegrád tweeted.

Experts warn that the winter still will be cold despite mild predictions. However, the temperatures will likely do little to aid Putin's attempts at crippling Ukrainian morale.

Dani Belo, assistant professor of international relations at Webster University, said Russia is losing ground in northeastern, eastern and some parts of southern Ukraine. Russian forces have reverted to trying to break the Ukrainians' morale to succeed in those territories, but Belo said the effort is unlikely to prove successful despite Russia's continued attacks against critical infrastructure.

"Is damage on Ukrainian infrastructure significant enough to create challenges to heating and water supply and electricity? Yes," Belo told Newsweek. "Russia's air operation against Ukraine is continuing. The question becomes: is Russia going to succeed in compelling Ukraine to retreat? The answer is no, regardless of the severity of the winter."

Matei Georgescu, the director at the Urban Climate Research Center at Arizona State University, told Newsweek that Ukrainian civilians will still struggle with frigid temperatures.

"The reality of the situation is there will be a decrease in the amount of sunlight. It will get considerably colder. Perhaps there won't be long bouts of brutally cold, sub-20-degree Fahrenheit weather, but this doesn't change anything from the civilian perspective," Georgescu said.

AccuWeather predicted that Ukrainian winter may start mild but will likely progress to "fairly typical" temperatures, according to Lead International Forecaster Jason Nicholls.

"There can be some shots of colder air at some point in January or early February which may work out to temperatures averaging close to normal," Nicholls wrote to Newsweek in an email. "If the cold shots are brief and less intense [then] there is a chance temperatures could be on the warm side of normal."

Civilians will need to layer clothing, especially if electricity isn't available, and preserve what electricity they can access.

"The good news is, any warming you can add [to the weather] is fantastic," Georgescu said.

Nicholls said predictions show precipitation near normal but a potentially lighter snowfall this year.

In recent weeks, Russia has increased its civilian attacks in a way that hasn't been seen since the beginning of the war in February. The attacks are disrupting civilian life. On Monday, Russia launched at least 50 missiles targeting civilian infrastructure. The attacks left Kyiv residents without water and many Ukrainian regions without power. However, Belo doubts weather will benefit Russia's efforts, even if temperatures turn frigid.

"That is not going to make Russia's military operation more successful," Belo said.