Putin Faces Pressure in Russia to End War With Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing increasing pressure to broker an end to the ongoing war in Ukraine as a growing contingent of his country's citizens have begun to question the benefits of the war against the sizable losses experienced on the Russian side.

However, there appears to be very little support for the type of measures Ukrainian officials consider non-negotiable—including the surrender of territories Putin has sought to annex into Russia—that would need to be included in any potential ceasefire.

The findings, contained in polling by the Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs and the Levada Center conducted late last month, help underscore not only the tangible impacts of Russia's frontline performance but also the influence of state media-driven narratives surrounding the war on the Russian public, which continues to support the country's "special military operation" in Ukraine by a roughly 3-to-1 margin.

"The Kremlin's tight control over traditional media sources continues to influence Russian support toward the military operation, especially among those who most trust television news, major print sources, and the radio," analysts for the Chicago Council wrote in a post announcing the findings. "Russians who trust these news sources are more likely to express strong support for the war than those who turn to more-independent outlets."

While their reach is limited, those independent outlets—particularly direct sources like Telegram and independent news organizations abroad—have also helped contribute to a growing understanding that the war is not going in Russia's favor.

Polling suggests that enthusiasm has begun to wane from the heights seen in polling at the war's start, with the lowest levels of support among those able to access information delivered directly from the front lines.

Since the group's last poll in March, there has been a 16 percent drop in the number of Russian citizens who believe the country invaded as an act of "self defense"—as Putin claimed—while the number of respondents unsure of the country's motivations has risen sharply.

And where nearly two-thirds of Russians believed the operation was going successfully at its start, that number has dropped by 15 percentage points since April, leaving the country more or less divided.

However, analysts say the divide was largely driven by the relatively small proportion of Russia's citizens who rely on more independent media sources—especially those who use virtual private networks to access more independent information on the internet whom data show are significantly less likely to say that they "definitely support" the war.

"This is presumably at least in part due to the fact that they have been exposed to other narratives about the conflict," Emily Sullivan, a public opinion researcher at the Chicago Council, told Newsweek.

National media narratives' impact on the Russian people is also reflected in polling showing a small share of citizens also questioning their country's military leadership, with motivations for invasion like economic or imperial ambitions appearing in the responses for the first time. Meanwhile, many are beginning to doubt whether Russia should be in Ukraine at all.

However, those whose support was steadfast largely continued to believe in objectives pushed by the Kremlin, including the need to "denazify" eastern Ukraine—consistent with findings from the Chicago Council in a brief titled "Public Accepts Putin's Spin on Ukraine Conflict" that explores the public's willingness to accept the narratives of leadership.

"While support still seems to be fairly solid at first glance, there are some signs Russians are beginning to question what benefits the military operation will bring," the report's authors wrote. "A majority (56 percent) think the action will worsen Russia's relations with the West [...] More say it will worsen than improve the economic welfare of Russians and the economic situation in the country. And as many say it will worsen as say it will improve Russia's political influence in the world."

Today, most Russians—about 53 percent—now believe it's time to start peace negotiations. But that comes with a rider of its own, aligning closely with Putin's own lack of enthusiasm for peace.

Solid majorities of Russians polled said they believed it would be unacceptable for Russia to return the seized regions of Crimea (78 percent) or the occupied Donbas region (66 percent) to Ukraine, a condition of peace Ukraine has repeatedly said it is unwilling to accept.

"A simple ceasefire won't do the trick," Zelensky said in a video interview at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore last month. "Unless we liberate our whole territory, we will not bring peace."

There remains the question of how steadfast Russian support of the Kremlin's position is. Protests, when they occur, have largely been subdued by police, and Sullivan admitted that polling in not-free societies is usually confronted with some challenges.

However, the main takeaway from the Levada/Chicago Council survey is not whether Russians are truly opposed to continuing the war but the amount who are beginning to question the war. That number, Sullivan said, is clearly beginning to emerge.

"Putin has been fairly consistently popular in Russia and 'rally around the flag' effects are well-documented around the world, so we're not surprised to see some support for the operation," she said. "So while we do have confidence in the data and in Levada's methods it is definitely important to look at the story told by the results as a whole rather than focusing in on one data point in isolation."

Update 12/14/22, 9:55 a.m. ET: This story was updated with additional information and comment from Emily Sullivan.