Putin May Force Lukashenko to Join War as Fear of Losing to Ukraine Grows

Russian President Vladimir Putin may eventually force Alexander Lukashenko, his Belarusian counterpart, to join his war against Ukraine, according to a Russia expert.

Days after Lukashenko vowed to conduct joint deployments with Russian forces, the dictatorial leader of Belarus announced Friday that he has introduced "counterterrorist measures" in the country "in connection with the escalation along the perimeter of the borders."

Lukashenko, a close ally of Putin's, said Ukraine was planning a strike on Belarus, without citing evidence. He said the counterterrorist measures are being done "in accordance with the existing protocol of the union of Belarus and Russia. This was written a long time ago. Everything is going according to plan."

In recent days, there have been conflicting messages from Belarusian officials about a "counterterrorist operation" (CTO) being rolled out in the country. The newly announced measures, which come amid frequent meetings between Lukashenko and Putin, have raised fears that Belarus will join the war that Putin started with his February 24 invasion. While Russia has used Belarusian territory to attack Ukraine, Lukashenko's forces have not participated in the conflict.

Natia Seskuria, a Russia expert and associate fellow at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, told Newsweek that although Lukashenko has so far been trying to walk a thin line to avoid direct involvement in the war, he may be drawn into the conflict under Putin's pressure.

"The recent developments, the possible announcement of CTO in Belarus and the creation of regional grouping of troops point at Putin's increased insecurity and fears of losing the war," Seskuria said. "It is being implemented now because, in light of successful Ukrainian counteroffensives, Putin seems to be resorting to [Russia's] remaining options."

Since early September, Ukraine has recaptured swaths of its territory in the south and northeast that were seized by Putin's forces throughout the war. This includes areas that Putin recently said were formally annexed by Russia following referendums seen by the international community as illegitimate.

"Russian troops are increasingly struggling on the battlefield, and Putin may force Lukashenko to officially join the war," Seskuria said.

Russia and Belarus are part of Union State, a supranational body, and there is defense cooperation between the parties, Seskuria said.

She added that the October 8 explosion on the strategically vital Kerch Strait Bridge, which connects Russia's mainland to the annexed Crimean peninsula, has been framed by Russia as an act of Ukrainian terrorism. The blast may serve as a pretext for Belarus to join the war and defend its ally from Ukrainian attacks.

"This is a least favorable option for Lukashenko, yet since 2020 presidential elections and the violent crackdown of protesters in Belarus, his political survival has been largely dependent [on] Moscow's support, so Putin exercises a very serious leverage on him," Seskuria said.

Alex Kokcharov, a risk analyst focused on Ukraine, expressed doubt that Belarus will become directly involved in the conflict. He suggested that Lukashenko is likely attempting to please Russia by demonstrating that he "is at least doing something" in the security area.

"I am extremely skeptical that Belarus poses a real military threat to Ukraine or to its NATO neighbors—Latvia, Lithuania and Poland," he told Newsweek. "Belarusian armed forces are small, poorly trained and equipped and would have very limited offensive capabilities."

Kokcharov suggested that the Belarusian statements on deployment of a joint force with Russia are likely to be a diversion aimed at forcing Ukraine to redeploy its forces to the Belarus-Ukraine border. This would weaken Ukrainian deployments elsewhere, especially in the country's south and east.

Sergej Sumlenny, a German political expert with a particular focus on Russia and Eastern Europe, agreed. He said that Lukashenko's recent statements appear to be part of a "one step forward, one step back" game to please Putin without taking any risks himself.

"He tries to give Putin partly what the latter wants [Belarus' involvement in the war] but without doing it," Sumlenny told Newsweek.

Ruslan Trad, a security researcher at the U.S. think tank Atlantic Council, told Newsweek that Russia may use Belarusian territory to attack civilian infrastructure. He also said there is evidence that Russia is likely extracting ammunition from Belarusian storage bases.

According to Seskuria, Lukashenko will ultimately try his best to navigate this situation in a way to avoid sending his forces to Ukraine, by demonstrating to the Kremlin that Belarus can still support Russia without joining the war.

"Yet the latest developments point at increased possibility of drawing Belarus into the war, and if Putin decided to do so, Lukashenko will be under tremendous pressure to do so. Yet this would contain tremendous political risks for him," she said.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian and Belarusian foreign ministries for comment.