Putin Is No 'Genius,' Ukraine Ambassador Says

• Kremlin infighting will become more "frantic" as Russian President Vladimir Putin weakens, according to one of Ukraine's most prominent diplomats.
• Kyiv's envoy to the U.K., Vadym Prystaiko, told Newsweek that Ukrainians want Putin dead, regardless of who might succeed him.
• Prystaiko said Ukraine is willing to use the "same weapons" as Russia and conduct covert and information operations.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is not a "master genius," according to one of Ukraine's most prominent diplomats, but he is merely the current "alpha" of a deeply corrupt and complex Russian political system in which much is out of the dictator's control.

Vadym Prystaiko, Ukraine's ambassador to the U.K., told Newsweek in an interview at the country's embassy in London that the weaker Putin becomes, the more "frantic" will be the vicious factionalism under him as different elite power groups vie for influence.

"I don't believe that he is a master genius who is sitting, planning where to move his pieces, and pulling the strings," Prystaiko—who has served as Ukraine's foreign minister and its representative to NATO—told Newsweek.

"The system is very complicated, it's not simplified. It's a big organism. The Russians have their own interests, their own core groups. There are buddies of Putin, and there are enemies of his. They recognize that the alpha is still there, but he is weakening. Obviously, the weaker he is, the more frantic movements will happen."

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine—now into its second year with no end in sight—has supercharged intra-Kremlin political jostling. Members of more liberal, "pro-peace" factions have been silenced, while the increasingly nationalist and pro-war camp has seized hold of the national narrative.

Figures like Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and oligarch-turned-warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin have used the deepening war to grow and hone their own personal armies, while peripheral figures like Dmitry Medvedev—once president, prime minister, and thought of as a potential Putin successor—apparently see rabid pro-war rhetoric as a way back into the fold.

The struggle for prominence has prompted conflict among some of Putin's most influential backers, including between Prigozhin's Wagner Group mercenaries and the regular Russian military hierarchy.

Andri Yusov, a representative of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate, said this week there are "many tiny cracks" forming in Putin's power base. And Ukrainian spy chief Major General Kyrylo Budanov said last week that Russia is now ready "to collapse."

Prystaiko said that either a full collapse or simply the removal of Putin would be welcome. "If we push against everything which represents this dictatorial regime, within or outside of Russia, that's fine," he said.

"We will either push the system strongly enough that they will replace the alpha dog, or the alpha will die for whatever reason—we will probably never know what it was—and the system will change. We don't care."

"Whether we will be happy if Putin dies, obviously," he added. "Nobody wishes death upon any human being, but we do for this particular guy."

Russia's war is bigger than Putin, though his grievance-laden interpretation of Russian history offers a window into the revanchism that has driven Russian foreign policy over recent decades. The removal of "the boss" is no guarantee that a Kremlin successor would soften Russia's muscular foreign meddling.

Prystaiko said Ukrainians have a simple answer to that debate. "We know for sure that Putin is bad for Ukraine. Maybe he's okay with India or somewhere else. But for us he's bad. Why wouldn't we want to see the end of his reign?"

"What I hate here in the West is that each and every time we discuss something like this, people somehow magically come to the conclusion that the next guy after him will be worse," the diplomat added. "How do you know that? Why would you bet that somebody can't be reasonable? Or a bit more reasonable than Putin?"

The fighting raging at various points along the 800-mile front line looks set only to intensify in the approaching spring-summer campaign season. Kyiv's troops are preparing for a counteroffensive supported by newly arriving Western armor, while Moscow is seeking to fortify and stabilize the contact line with the help of waves of mobilized recruits.

Meanwhile, Moscow is grappling with covert Ukrainian action and domestic Russian partisan movements behind the lines.

While Kremlin power players bicker, there is a steady drip of attacks on Russian military facilities, dual use infrastructure, and prominent pro-war individuals. Earlier this month, for example, pro-war blogger Vladlen Tatarsky—real name Maxim Fomin—was killed in a bomb attack at a St. Petersburg café.

The attack was claimed by a spokesperson for the little-known National Republican Army, which some experts doubt even exists. Russian investigators blamed Ukrainian intelligence for the attack.

"This guy was criminal who was sat in our jail before the Russians came and liberated him," Prystaiko said of Tatarsky. "Nobody in Ukraine would think of wasting the resources on such a target," he added, saying the same was true of the attack that killed Darya Dugina—the daughter of ultra-nationalist Russian ideologue Aleksandr Dugin—last summer.

"They have a big population," Prystaiko said. "Tomorrow somebody will kill somebody again, and they will blame the Ukrainians."

Still, Prystaiko said that Ukraine will use all means available to undermine the Russian state and blunt its military capacity.

"They're trying to shake us up. Obviously, we would be happy to shake them up also, so they would start thinking more about internal problems and not about Ukraine anymore," the ambassador said.

"We are in a fight. We are also in a propaganda war, there is no doubt about it. We can pretend to be fluffy and white, but you understand that we also have to fight with the same weapons they're using."

Newsweek has contacted the Russian foreign ministry for comment.