Putin 'Not Insane' But May Resort to Nuclear Weapons: Estonian President

Russian President Vladimir Putin is not likely to use nuclear weapons in Moscow's struggling war on Ukraine, according to Estonian President Alar Karis, though may again flirt with using weapons of mass destruction if the Kremlin finds itself in a "very desperate" situation.

Speaking with Newsweek at the presidential palace, which once served as the seat for both the occupying Soviet Union and Nazi German authorities, ahead of the Lennart Meri Conference in Tallinn, Karis said that while he is "not that worried" that the Kremlin will deliver on its well-worn nuclear threats, he and other Western leaders must prepare for that possibility.

"There are very few people who are close to Putin who actually know. But he is definitely not insane, at least in medical terms. That means he knows exactly what he is doing," Karis said about the Russian dictator's mentality. "But there is not much information, you can speculate when Putin starts to change generals that something is not going the way he wants."

"If Russia is becoming very desperate then—and I wouldn't say by accident, but even maybe deliberately—they might push a button," the Estonian president said, referring to Moscow's nuclear arsenal. "But it's not that easy. It's not that you have a button in the corner, and then you go and push it. There are still certain steps to follow."

Karis continued: "I'm not that worried. But I still have to keep an eye on the possibility that this might happen. That means to be ready, at least mentally to think what we should do then."

While Western leaders have repeatedly expressed their priority of avoiding a direct NATO-Russia conflict that could turn nuclear, officials have simultaneously framed Putin's nuclear sabre-rattling as an effort to scare off Kyiv's backers and undermine unified Western support for Ukraine.

The Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, for instance, told the Senate Armed Services Committee earlier this month of potential Russian nuclear use: "It's very unlikely, is our current assessment," Reuters reported.

More recent nuclear threats—like Putin's announced intention to deploy tactical nuclear warheads in Belarus—appear to have done little to move the needle. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said the move "is his effort to use this threat in a managed way."

Speculation as to Putin's health and political control have long been rife, and have been further inflamed by highly public spats between top Russian power players like Yevgeny Prigozhin and Ramzan Kadyrov, and the regular Russian military hierarchy headed by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Reports indicate significant grievances among Russia's business and political elites given the high costs and relatively small rewards of more than a year of full-scale war in Ukraine. However, Putin has used the invasion to further suppress any organized opposition at home, and few within the elite have been willing to publicly break with the Kremlin.

Even if Putin's war on Ukraine proves his last, Karis warned there is no guarantee that a successor—a position for which there are no clear candidates—would choose a different path.

"Even if Putin is not there anymore, maybe there is going to be another one for a while, and then it might take some time before we get a leader who is willing to work together with the rest of the world," he said.

The state of Russian public opinion is a topic of heated debate for some. Polls indicate a mix of support for, apathy towards, or discomfort over the war on Ukraine, with some suggesting that many Russians have little interest in being killed or maimed for Moscow's revanchist war.

The Kremlin, meanwhile, has lauded what it calls the clear support of the Russian people for its so-called "special military operation."

Karis said a large question mark hangs over what the Russian people want. "You can't get proper information on what Russian people actually think, because they have been silenced, like being under the Soviet regime," he said.

The president added that Putin and his officials appear to have been careful not to place too much of a burden on Moscow and St. Petersburg, the two pillars of Russia's political and business worlds.

"In remote areas and rural areas, it's a different situation," Karis said. "They're very poor, and they send their sons to this war. In the capital and maybe St. Petersburg, people might not even notice that there is a war going on."

There appears no imminent palace coup or mass uprising that will unseat Putin and forge a new, contrite Russian path. Western analysts and Russian nationalist propagandists alike are nonetheless speculating over a potential chaotic breakup of Russia in the event of a decisive defeat in Ukraine.

Karis said he does not expect such a scenario. "It's difficult to expect. The resources are not in Moscow or St. Petersburg, they're in Siberia," he said, noting that no successor state could afford to lose access to such lucrative assets. "It won't happen, it simply won't happen."

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry by email to request comment.