Putin's New Prigozhin Dilemma

President Vladimir Putin is pushing to reassert control after the Wagner Group's aborted mutiny, but has likely decided that he can't directly eliminate its head Yevgeny Prigozhin at this time, according to a U.S. think tank.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has assessed the Russian president's response to the June 24 revolt in its latest analysis of the Ukraine conflict, published on Tuesday.

A criminal case against Prigozhin for armed mutiny was officially dropped on June 27. Putin also publicly admitted what he has denied for years—that the Kremlin fully funds and supplies the "private military company" run by the tycoon who had been a longtime ally.

Until September 2022, the Kremlin claimed to have no knowledge of the organization. Mercenaries are illegal under Russian law and private military security companies are not permitted to offer services outside the country.

The president's turnaround came after Prigozhin announced a "march for justice" by his fighters against Russia's military leadership. The march followed a months-long public feud over the handling of the war, as well as defense minister Sergei Shoigu's demand that Prigozhin sign a contract by July 1 that would in effect place his fighters under the ministry's control.

Wagner troops pulled back from their march to the capital after the Kremlin said a deal had been brokered by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko to avoid "bloodshed." The Kremlin said Prigozhin would leave for Belarus and criminal charges against him would be dropped.

Now Putin is trying to present Prigozhin "as corrupt and a liar to destroy his reputation among Wagner personnel and within Russian society," according to the ISW.

The president implied on Tuesday that Prigozhin had lied about the Wagner Group's independence from the Kremlin and the lack of state compensation for its personnel.

Putin did not refer to his former ally by name, describing him only as "the owner of the Concord company," but said he had received 80 billion rubles (about $936 million) between May 2022 and May 2023 for "delivering and catering food to the Russian military, and that the Kremlin will investigate whether the company stole anything during its work for the Kremlin."

The ISW said the president's comments may be "preparation to justify the Kremlin's confiscation of Prigozhin's assets via corruption charges."

It added: "Putin is rhetorically separating Prigozhin from the Wagner PMC and is deliberately depriving Prigozhin of the title of Wagner financier to undermine his role in the Wagner PMC."

This is likely intended to "set informational conditions" to enable the Kremlin to accuse Prigozhin of corruption or conspiring with Ukraine or the West. It would also "alienate Prigozhin from Wagner personnel whom the Kremlin seeks to retain to fight in Ukraine as part of the regular Russian military," the ISW said.

"Prigozhin had built his personal brand on criticizing the Russian military command and bureaucrats for corruption and ties to Western countries, and Putin is likely attempting to shatter Prigozhin's populist appeal by accusing him of the same sins."

At the same time, Putin has likely decided that he cannot eliminate Prigozhin without making him a "martyr" given that he retains some support within Russian society and the regular forces.

"The Kremlin will need to ensure that these groups become disillusioned with Prigozhin to effectively deprive him of his popular support in Russia," the ISW said.

"The Kremlin will likely continue to attack Prigozhin's character to break Prigozhin's popular support, discourage Wagner personnel from following him to Belarus, and destroy his financial power."

Lukashenko said on Tuesday that Prigozhin had arrived in Belarus.

Boris Bondarev, a former Russian diplomat who resigned in protest at Moscow's war in Ukraine has told Newsweek that he believes Prigozhin's mutiny attempt will ultimately lead to Putin's downfall.

The Russian elite is growing more frustrated with the president as the war drags on, and this atmosphere will eventually lead to a consensus that Putin must be ousted, said Bondarev.

"This war [has been going on for] one and a half years already, so it has been quite a slow process … a process of deterioration, and the situation is changing," he said.

"Slowly the disappointment and anger and irritation among the elite has been growing, but this Prigozhin thing, I think, has given great impetus to this and people start understanding and realizing in a more clear way that the situation is very wrong, it is very unhealthy."

He added: "So, the situation will lead eventually to the great understanding that Putin must go. In the future, we will see more and more—maybe not rebellions, but this talk behind Putin's back."

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