Putin Is Revealing Why Prigozhin Got Off Easy After Mutiny

Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was photographed at the Russia-Africa summit underway in St. Petersburg, Russia, weeks after he was supposed to go into exile over his failed mutiny against Moscow.

Pictures of the mercenary boss with African officials quickly spread across Russian social media outlets on Thursday, and several military bloggers expressed surprise that Prigozhin would be at a forum hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

On June 23, Prigozhin ordered his men to march on Moscow. The uprising ended the following day under the agreement that Prigozhin and any remaining Wagner troops in the region would depart for Belarus.

However, some analysts have said that Prigozhin's return was likely approved, if not ordered, by Putin because of the Wagner Group's extensive operations in Africa, which included providing protection to government officials in the Central African Republic and Mali. This line of thinking could also explain why Prigozhin didn't face more severe consequences for his thwarted rebellion.

"Putin needs Prigozhin for the moment to pursue Russian state interests in Africa," Northwestern University political science professor William Reno told Newsweek. "These interests include competition with the West in security cooperation, mining and energy.

"Prigozhin's group is also involved in the project of co-opting African intellectuals and groups in an anti-Western, anti-colonialist project—a reflection of the agenda directed toward the West of partnership and support for far-right groups. Despite the inconveniences of an armed mutiny last month, Prigozhin is still integral to these elements of Russian state interests."

Meanwhile, Putin has been the subject of mockery and criticism because of the low number of African leaders who have arrived for the summit, which officially began Thursday. Only 17 African heads of state traveled to Russia for the forum, compared to 43 heads of state who attended the Russia-Africa summit in 2019. (Russia noted that additional African countries sent government officials or ambassadors.)

Critics said the low attendance is an example of Russia's isolation because of Putin's ongoing war with Ukraine. Others have said some leaders may have decided to skip the summit because of Putin's decision this month to end the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

The end of the grain deal, which allowed Ukraine to export its grain by sea during the war with Russia, has raised concerns about global food security. Putin has tried to reassure his African allies by offering them free grain.

Newsweek reached out to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs via email for comment.

Putin has increased efforts in recent years toward building closer relationships with African nations, and the sight of Prigozhin at the summit could be a reflection of that goal.

"I think that Prigozhin's presence at the Russia-Africa summit is first and foremost to 'reassure' African governments where there is a Wagner presence, that Wagner will remain in those countries as the main agent of Russian government assistance to them," Mark N. Katz, a professor at George Mason University's Schar School of Policy and Government, told Newsweek.

As for the online reaction to photos of the Wagner boss at the summit, Katz said the "message, if any, directed toward the Russian public appears to be that Prigozhin is still working on Russia's behalf—and with Putin's blessing—in Africa.

"This may also be part of the larger theme that I believe Moscow is trying to develop: The 'Wagner mutiny' was not a coup attempt against Putin, that whatever happened has been exaggerated by the West, and that Putin and Prigozhin are working together now."

David Silbey—an associate professor of history at Cornell and director of teaching and learning at Cornell in Washington—told Newsweek he thinks it's important to consider whom the intended audience is for the released photographs.

"Who's the audience? The average Russian isn't following Twitter. Those that are already likely more connected and more part of the ruling elite, and there the signal is that Prigozhin is back as a favored son," Silbey said.

"Remember that he was always one of the levers Putin used against the Russian military—the leader of an external paramilitary force not under their control. Having him back in that position gives Putin the same kind of leverage as before."

However, Silbey conceded that Prigozhin's return is "a sign of weakness, that someone could rebel and be rehabilitated that quickly."

Reno also emphasized that point, saying it's "hard to explain Putin's willingness to invite Prigozhin to tea or whatever as a sign of strength."

"While Russian politics has its particularities, it is unusual under any circumstances to tolerate the leader of a mutiny as a member of one's court," he said.