Putin's Plan for Next Year Raises Questions About End of Ukraine War

Russian President Vladimir Putin has committed to a large increase in spending for the war in Ukraine through 2024 despite a top Kremlin official recently hinting Moscow may be willing to negotiate an end to the conflict.

Agence France-Presse (AFP) on Thursday reported that a new document from Russia's Ministry of Finance shows Moscow will increase defense spending for the country by almost 70 percent in 2024. Bloomberg first reported on the same figures last week when a draft proposal for Russia's defense spending was released.

The deep investment in the war budget comes after Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently indicated Russia would honor Ukraine's borders prior to Putin's invasion that began in February 2022 if Kyiv agrees to one major condition.

During a press conference at the United Nations General Assembly on Saturday, Lavrov suggested Russia would recognize Ukraine's territorial sovereignty based on a decades-old declaration if Kyiv agreed to a commitment of remaining "a non-aligned country and would not enter into any military alliances."

The comment seemingly referenced Ukraine's bid to join NATO, which Putin not only opposes but has also cited the possible expansion of NATO on Russia's borders as one of his justifications for starting the war.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and members of his administration have not publicly addressed Lavrov's comments, but Zelensky has continued his call for allies to provide his troops with more weapons following his trip to the United States and Canada.

Putin himself has also not broached the subject of a possible ceasefire, and the Russian Finance Ministry's new document indicates he's prepared to invest deeply through 2024. According to the AFP's analysis, the document shows defense spending would increase by over 68 percent year-on-year to almost 10.8 trillion rubles ($111.15 billion). This figure would account for around 6 percent of Russia's GDP.

Newsweek reached out to the Russian Ministry of Finance via email for comment.

According to the AFP's calculations, Russia's defense spending budget for 2024 will be roughly three times more than the money allotted for education, environmental protection and healthcare spending combined.

The document also indicates Putin is not yet ready to relinquish his illegitimate claim of four Ukrainian regions he annexed to Russia last year, as the report said "integrating" the Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts is one of the finance agency's goals next year.

If Lavrov's statement about recognizing Ukraine's previous maps is to be believed, then Russia would theoretically have to give up its claim to the four territories.

Meanwhile, Russia's economy has suffered during the war as Putin increased military spending and Western sanctions took hold. After the ruble hit a 17-month low against the U.S. dollar, Russia's Central Bank raised interest rates last month in an attempt to address concerns about the country's currency and raising inflation.