Russia Now Moving to Treat Ukraine as Major Conventional War-ISW

More than 11 months after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine, his administration is moving to treat his "special military operation" as an all-out war, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

When Putin's troops crossed the Russia-Ukraine border on February 24, 2022, Kremlin officials justified the provocation by saying its campaign sought to eliminate "neo-Nazis" in the country, and that Russia had "no choice" but to protect Russians living in Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

But last month, as Russia faced staggering losses and military setbacks, the Russian leader called the conflict a "war" for the first time since the invasion began.

In its latest assessment of the war in Ukraine, the ISW, a U.S.-based think tank, said on Sunday that the Kremlin is "belatedly taking personnel mobilization, reorganization, and industrial actions it realistically should have" before launching its invasion last year.

Russia is now "taking steps to conduct the 'special military operation' as a major conventional war," the think tank assessed.

Putin began publicly signaling preparations for a protracted war in early December, pledging that Russia will improve upon the mistakes of its earlier military campaigns and setting conditions for a protracted war in Ukraine, the ISW observed.

The Russian president, for example, said on December 7 that his "special military operation" in Ukraine could be a "lengthy process."

Putin in December also made several further public appearances "indirectly outlining his goals to improve the Russian war effort's mobilization processes, revitalize Russia's defense industrial base, centralize the Kremlin's grip over the Russian information space, and reinstate the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) authority," the ISW noted.

The ISW assessed that in the next six months, the Kremlin will likely prepare to conduct a "decisive strategic action" intended to" regain the initiative and "end Ukraine's current string of operational successes."

Russia has failed to achieve the majority of its major operational objectives throughout the course of the war, including taking control of the capital city of Kyiv. Ukraine has also regained control of key territories Putin's troops seized in the early stages of the war.

The ISW noted that the Russian air and missile campaign targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure under General Sergey Surovikin last last year "also failed to generate significant operational effects or demoralize Ukrainian society, as the Kremlin likely intended."

Despite these setbacks, Putin and senior Kremlin officials continue reiterating that Russia hasn't abandoned its maximalist objectives, the think tank observed.

On Sunday, Putin claimed that the war in Ukraine is proceeding "within the plan."

"While Putin has not changed his objectives for the war, there is emerging evidence that he is changing fundamental aspects of Russia's approach to the war by undertaking several new lines of effort," the ISW said.

He said during an interview with Pavel Zarubin for the state-run Rossiya-1 news channel that the "special military operation" in Ukraine was going according to the Kremlin's plan, TASS reported.

"The dynamics are positive," Putin said. "Everything is developing within the plan of the Defense Ministry and the General Staff. And I hope that our fighters will please us more than once again with the results of their combat work."

Newsweek reached out to Russia's foreign ministry for comment.

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