Putin Sent Wagner to Belarus to Prepare Attack on Poland: Russian Lawmaker

Russian lawmaker Andrey Kartapolov suggested that President Vladimir Putin expelled the Wagner Group to Belarus to allegedly prepare for an attack against Poland during a recent appearance on Russian state television.

Last month, Putin exiled Wagner Group forces to Belarus following a failed mutiny against Russian military leadership that followed months of simmering tensions over Moscow's stagnant invasion of Ukraine, which has seen Russian forces struggle to achieve their goals despite the vast size of its military. The attempted rebellion saw a breakdown of relations between the Kremlin and Wagner Group founder and leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, a longtime Putin ally. Meanwhile, much about the paramilitary organization's plans in Belarus remain unknown.

However, Kartapolov said during a recent appearance on Russia-1's Evening with Vladimir Solovyov that Wagner forces may be preparing for a new attack against Poland, a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Kartapolov's claims could not be independently confirmed by Newsweek, and neither Putin nor Wagner leadership have signaled that there are imminent plans to invade Poland.

Kartapolov said Wagner troops were sent to "train" Belarusian soldiers in preparation for a potential attack against Poland to potentially seize control of the Suwałki Gap, a small but strategically important strip of Polish territory between Russia and the exclave of Kaliningrad that has long been a sticking point for Russia. His remarks come after Poland moved troops last week to its Eastern border due to Wagner concerns.

"It is clear that Wagner PMC went to Belarus to train the Belarusian Armed Forces," Kartapolov said. "Not only and not so much. There is such a thing as the Suwałki Corridor. You know very well what it is. Should anything happen, we need this Suwałki Corridor very much."

He added that the Wagner Group will be prepared to take control of the land in a matter of hours.

"The Ministry of Defense will figure out what they gave and what they took. I'm not talking about that, but about the fact that a strike force is ready to take this small corridor in a matter of hours," Kartapolov said.

Video of his remarks were translated and posted to Twitter by the account TheKremlinYap on Saturday morning.

Newsweek reached out to NATO and the Polish Ministry of Defense for comment via email.

Kartapolov's remarks received pushback from Russian state TV host Vladimir Solovyov, who pointed out that the Wagner Group turned over equipment to Russian authorities before leaving the country.

Daniel Fried, the former U.S. ambassador to Poland and a distinguished fellow in the Atlantic Council's Europe Center, told Newsweek on Monday morning that Kartapolov's remarks shouldn't be taken as representative as an operational plan, but as a sign of "apocalyptic fascist hysteria" among Russian leadership that is intended to "frighten" the West.

He said the Wagner Group would have "no chance" of successfully attacking Poland, pointing to the strength of the Polish military as well as U.S. presence in the region. Still, he noted that Russia would "probably attack" if Moscow believed it would succeed in doing so.

"This is not serious, except as an indication of a rather bloodthirsty and sick strategic culture in Moscow," Fried said. "That said, it's a very good thing that NATO is expanding its regional defense plan in Poland, the Baltics and other countries."

The Suwalki Gap is a sparsely populated, yet crucial, strip of land that runs along Poland's northeastern border. The region is particularly important because it offers the only land connection between NATO and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, meaning Russian control of this land would cut Poland off from the rest of Europe.

Fried said the "danger" of the Suwalki Gap is that if Poland and NATO were not prepared, Russia could launch a "lightning attack" to seize control of the area, severing the Baltics from the rest of NATO. This would make it easier for Russia to put pressure on these nations, Fried said.

The geopolitical importance of the corridor has long drawn concerns about its vulnerability to a Russian attack, which would also draw a NATO response due to the alliance's Article 5, which states that an attack on one NATO country would be treated as an attack against all members of the coalition.

While this is less of a threat nowadays due to Poland and NATO military strength, Fried, who served as ambassador from 1997 to 2000, said Polish leaders used to point out these vulnerabilities to him.

"We've taken care of that problem, so it doesn't quite exist," he said.

Poland has moved more than 1,000 troops to the east of the country amid concerns that Wagner Group's presence in Belarus could lead to increased instability, according to Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak.

"Over 1,000 soldiers and almost 200 units of equipment from the 12th and 17th Mechanized Brigades are starting to move to the east of the country as part of the 'Safe Podlasie' operation. This is a demonstration of our readiness to respond to attempts at destabilization near the border of our country," he tweeted last Saturday.

Update 07/17/2023, 12:48 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Fried.