Putin's Kremlin Strongmen Warn Prigozhin Over Political Ambitions—ISW

Russian President Vladimir Putin's strongmen have likely warned Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin over his possible political aspirations in Russia, a think tank has said.

The Institute for the Study of War, based in Washington D.C., noted in its latest analysis of the conflict in Ukraine on Wednesday that Prigozhin responded to several allegations from Russian Telegram channels—which are reportedly affiliated with the Kremlin—about his political ambitions.

Prigozhin's paramilitary outfit, the Wagner Group, was brought into Putin's war in Ukraine by the Kremlin after Russia failed to take the capital, Kyiv, in the spring of 2022. Military observers have assessed that as the war dragged on, the Kremlin establishment sensed Prigozhin had greater ambitions, and he was seen as becoming more dangerous in terms of his political persona.

Since September 2022, Prigozhin has clashed publicly with Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, and more recently, the Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov. He threatened on May 5 to withdraw his mercenary group from the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine over a lack of ammunition.

The ISW said Kremlin-associated Telegram channels have claimed that Prigozhin is using the battle for Bakhmut and the war in Ukraine to become a political figure in Russia rather than actually fighting for the country's interests.

Responding to those allegations via the press service of his company Concord, Prigozhin said that he "recently" had an interaction with an unnamed Russian senior official who had accused him of "deliberately acting in his own self-interest."

"Prigozhin emphasized that this official was not Russian President Vladimir Putin but indirectly implied that these sentiments are widespread in the Russian Presidential Administration—noting that the Telegram posts reflect the collective opinion of the bureaucratic community," the ISW said.

The siloviki, an elite group of Russian businessmen and leaders, is likely attempting to signal to Prigozhin that "he must cease his political ambitions in Russia," the think tank assessed.

Vlad Mykhnenko, an expert in the post-communist transformation of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union at the University of Oxford, U.K., previously told Newsweek that the main activity of Prigozhin during the conflict "has always been trying to capitalize on the war and amass more assets and resources in Russia itself."

Prigozhin's aim is "to get a formal government post, or a big political leadership role, i.e., to convert his military assets into tangible economic and political assets inside Russia," said Mykhnenko.

The Kremlin then started to "manage him" and "minimize his overgrown influence."

"The decision by Putin to reinstate [Valery] Gerasimov and other generals, whom Prigozhin openly clashed against, as chief commanders of the Russian war in Ukraine back in late 2022 was the beginning of Prigozhin's end," Mykhnenko added.

The ISW said the siloviki so far appear to be "unsuccessful in their attempts to scare Prigozhin into obedience."

Newsweek has contacted Russia's Foreign Ministry via email for comment.