Putin Unlikely to See Pause in Combat as Ukraine Promises Frozen Fight

Russia is unlikely to see a pause in combat over the frigid winter months after a key Ukrainian official promised over the weekend to continue fighting to retake territory.

Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine in late February, hoping for a quick victory against the Eastern European country. More than nine months later, however, Putin's troops have failed to achieve substantial military victories after the spirited Ukrainian defense efforts, bolstered by Western aid, blunted the Russian military's gains.

Now, as Ukraine continues to hold momentum, both nations' militaries are facing a brutal winter fight, with troops facing icy temperatures and difficult weather that threatens to make conditions worse for soldiers.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said earlier this month that he believes Russia is trying to "freeze" the conflict to "regroup and launch a bigger offensive later on," when conditions may be more beneficial.

However, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov indicated during a press conference on Sunday that Ukraine plans to continue defending its territory throughout the winter, acknowledging that damp soil brought about by the rainy winter could make the conflict more difficult.

"But the Ukrainian Armed Forces don't think about stopping....When the soil becomes more solid, I am convinced that we will continue our counterattacks, the campaign to liberate our territories," Reznikov said in remarks translated by The Moscow Times.

Last week, Reznikov tweeted that "neither snow, nor frost, nor mud will stop the [Ukraine military] from liberating our land" after Ukraine secured an additional security package from the United States, which has provided the country military and humanitarian aid throughout the war.

Matthew Schmidt, director of international affairs at the University of New Haven and senior consultant to Blue Ink Global, told Newsweek on Monday that winters in Ukraine are more mild than most people believe, comparing them to those in the Northeast United States. He added that Russia and Ukraine have been fighting in winters since 2014, so it is "not like they're not used to being engaged in some kind of combat" during cold weather.

Schmidt said winter will primarily impact morale among troops, particularly for Russia's military, which "already has bad morale."

"I think that the chief military effect that the winter is going to have on either side is morale," he added. "And it's going to be much worse on the Russian side because we've seen continual reports about a lack of equipment, lack of coats, lack of gloves, a lack of modern weaponry that can withstand the court."

Ukraine can win the war by denying "the enemy the things they need for morale in the winter," Schmidt said, explaining that both sides will need more equipment to keep morale up.

He noted that Putin is planning to weaponize the winter against Ukraine, aiming to use "cold, homelessness and fear" to put new pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to eventually agree to negotiate an end to the war. Russia in recent months ramped up attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure including power plants in an effort to "create a flow of people out into the elements," Schmidt said.

"This is really what Putin is banking on," he added. "He's not going to win this war militarily. He's going to have to win this war using his military to create civilian suffering like this to force them to negotiate a settlement."

Reznikov's remarks come as the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defense said the Kremlin is unlikely to make significant advances within the winter months during an intelligence briefing on Monday. British intelligence previously said that winter would bring "a change in conflict conditions" for Russian and Ukrainian soldiers.

"Changes to daylight hours, temperature and weather will present unique challenges for fighting soldiers," the ministry said in November, predicting that fewer offensives will be carried out as parts of the region will see only nine hours of daylight.

Newsweek reached out to Russia's Ministry of Defense for comment.