Putin Using Nuclear Weapons Against NATO 'Very Possible': Ex-CIA Analyst

It is "very possible" that Russian President Vladimir Putin will decide to order a nuclear strike on a NATO country, according to former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst Peter Schroeder.

Schroeder, adjunct senior fellow specializing in Russian foreign and security policy at the Center for a New American Security, suggested in an opinion article published by Foreign Affairs on Wednesday that President Joe Biden's administration made "a mistake" in largely dismissing the prospect of Putin using nuclear weapons amid its ongoing war with Ukraine.

While Biden has expressed concerns about the Russian president targeting Ukraine with "tactical nuclear weapons," Schroeder, who works in the center's Transatlantic Security Program, argued that Putin may instead escalate the war with a nuclear attack on NATO, which continues to expand in Europe despite warnings from Russia. A strike of any sort on a NATO state would likely plunge all other members, including the U.S., into a direct war with Russia.

"It is actually quite unlikely that [Putin] will use a nuclear weapon on the battlefield in Ukraine, but it is very possible that he will move toward using one against NATO," wrote Schroeder. "Unlike the West, Putin may not fear a nuclear standoff ... and possibly sees himself as uniquely suited to navigating a nuclear crisis."

"If Putin does escalate the war, for instance by attacking NATO with conventional weapons, he will likely move very swiftly, so as not to give the United States a chance to maneuver away from a crisis," he continued. "Washington will struggle to deter a Kremlin so emboldened."

Schroeder went on to suggest that a "growing complacency among U.S. officials" about the Russian nuclear threat was "based on a misunderstanding of Putin's rhetoric and the dynamics that keep Moscow from using nuclear weapons."

He argued that Putin's bombast was "designed to threaten NATO itself" and serve as a "warning to American decision-makers that Moscow is willing to create a nuclear confrontation with Washington if needed to win in Ukraine."

Newsweek reached out for comment to the White House and Putin's office via email on Wednesday.

During a meeting with defense officials on Tuesday, Putin said that efforts to modernize Moscow's nuclear arsenal were "95 percent" complete, while also noting that the importance of the arsenal had "increased significantly," according to Bloomberg.

Earlier this month, the Russian president reportedly indicated that he was considering enacting a nuclear "first strike" policy, a move that would put Russia at odds with the policies of nearly all other nuclear powers.

Putin said last year that he would use the weapons if Russia's "territorial integrity is threatened" and warned that his stance was "not a bluff."

The Biden administration announced in October that it was working on a new nuclear bomb variant as part of an effort to modernize the arsenal and maintain a "strong and credible extended deterrence."

Biden has sent mixed signals on the Russian nuclear threat. Although he has repeatedly warned about "Putin using tactical nuclear weapons," he also said during a press conference in July that he did not think there was "any real prospect" of Russia going nuclear.

The president has warned Russia that it risks becoming "more of a pariah in the world than they ever have been" if nuclear weapons are used, while threatening to launch a U.S. response that will be "consequential."

Schroeder's article on Wednesday concluded that "the unfortunate truth is that Washington cannot deter Putin from escalating to the point where he uses nuclear weapons because of the war in Ukraine." He suggested that U.S. officials "take a different tack" instead.

"They need to try empowering Russian officials who want to obstruct any effort by Putin to go nuclear," Schroeder wrote. "The United States must also persuade Russian officials that there are paths out of Ukraine that do not end in either victory or a humiliating defeat."

"They must simultaneously rally neutral states to pressure Moscow away from escalation," he continued. "Nuclear brinkmanship is a dangerous game, particularly with an authoritarian leader such as Putin. This is no time for complacency."