Putin's War in Ukraine Has Entered a New Phase

The full-scale invasion of Ukraine launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin last year has entered a new phase with the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam, Ivan Fedorov, the mayor of Ukraine's occupied southern city of Melitopol, told Newsweek.

The critical Soviet-era dam in southern Ukraine on the Dnieper River, part of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, was breached in the early hours of Tuesday morning. It unleashed water on many square miles of territory ahead of a looming counteroffensive from Kyiv.

Both Ukraine and NATO have accused Russia of being behind the dam's destruction. Russia has blamed Ukraine for the damage, saying it was done to distract attention from a "faltering" counteroffensive.

The dam's collapse placed thousands of homes in the critical risk zones. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said hundreds of thousands of people have been left without normal access to drinking water.

On Wednesday, Ukraine's state-owned energy company Ukrhydroenergo said 1,852 houses have been flooded on the right bank of the partially occupied Kherson region, with 1,457 people evacuated so far. Meanwhile, reports have emerged of occupying authorities leaving residents to fend for themselves in flooded areas.

"It's a new stage of the war," Fedorov, the mayor of the city of Melitopol in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region, told Newsweek.

"Putin tried to commit a new level of aggression. But I know that we need to win," he said. "Of course, every day we can expect from terrorists—Putin—something new, but it can't stop us from winning this war."

Melitopol, which had a prewar population of 150,000, was among the first regions to fall to Russian forces after the full-scale invasion began last February. Fedorov was captured and detained by Russian special services in March 2022 for six days until he was freed in a prisoner exchange.

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

Fedorov said the dam's destruction presents a significant risk to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. This is under Russian control, and relies on the Kakhovka Reservoir, created by the dam, for its cooling system.

"All cooling systems of the nuclear power plant use the Dnieper river and of course, there is not enough water in the Dnieper—it's very dangerous," Fedorov said. "It's important to understand that the nuclear power station has been controlled by occupants for a long period, and nobody knows the truth or what the situation is like now there. Everybody knows that the Russian [forces] are crazy and, without any thinking, they will try to do [things] as bad as possible."

International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi has said there is "no immediate risk" to the plant's safety. However, he added that there could be a risk should there be a "prolonged absence of cooling water."

Putin's Shifting Strategy

Anders Åslund, an economist and adjunct professor at Georgetown University, Washington, DC, echoed Fedorov's assessment of the conflict. He said that it has now entered a "new phase."

"Putin has gradually changed strategy," Åslund, who has served as an economic adviser to the governments of Russia and Ukraine, told Newsweek.

"During the first week of the war, the Russians just tried to go in and take everything. They did not bomb anything but really military targets," he said.

Russian forces then targeted Ukraine's critical infrastructure from October 2022 in retaliation for an attack on the Kerch bridge. This links the annexed Crimea peninsula to Russia. Kyiv denied responsibility.

"First, they went for the [power] grid, and then, from January, they went for the power stations. So they have gone deeper and deeper into infrastructure, in steps," said Åslund.

He drew a comparison between the dam's destruction and how Iraqi President Saddam Hussein set oil wells on fire in 1991 when he was forced out of Kuwait.

"When you have lost territory, then you destroy it," Åslund said. "I think that this is something that you do when you give up. It's not an offensive action but sour grapes. [Russia is saying], 'We have lost the apple; we are destroying as much as possible.'"

Domestic Stability

Åslund said he believes the Russian leader has become increasingly concerned about his domestic stability in Russia. There have been recent attacks by Russian anti-Putin militia groups in the Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine.

"It's also important that these incursions into the bordering regions show that Russia cannot defend its own border. So, all of a sudden, Putin has spoken about it repeatedly, 'it's a question of our country's survival,'" Åslund said.

"They substantially changed tone from being aggressive to claiming some false victimhood, but I think that he's really concerned about domestic stability now," Åslund added.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry via email for comment.

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