Putin Will Be Strangled or Arrested if Russia Loses: Ex-Russian Commander

• Igor Girkin, a former Russian commander, speculated this week that if Russia loses the war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin would either be killed or stand trial before the International Criminal Court.
• The prediction comes after the court issued an arrest warrant for Putin last week, charging him with war crimes.
• Girkin has become a vocal critic of Putin and Russia's military leaders for their handling of the war in Ukraine.

Former Russian commander Igor Girkin said this week that Russian President Vladimir Putin would likely be "strangled" or stand trial before the International Criminal Court (ICC) if Russia loses the war in Ukraine.

Girkin, who is also known by the alias Igor Strelkov, made the comments in a video uploaded on his Telegram channel, which has nearly 800,000 subscribers.

His remarks came several days after the ICC's March 17 announcement that it had issued an arrest warrant for Putin for war crimes. ICC investigators in The Hague had reportedly worked on evidence against Putin for over a year before the court issued the warrant. It accuses the Russian leader of being "allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation."

On Friday, Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine's minister of internal affairs, shared on Twitter a translated video of Girkin's comments regarding the ICC warrant.

The clip opens with Girkin reading a question from his smartphone. The question said, "How do you assess the probability of the president being surrendered by his inner circle as a result of the International Criminal Court warrant issued?"

"If we lose the war and he [Putin] doesn't get strangled before then, a 'conditional' Navalny will send him to The Hague," Girkin said, seemingly referring to Alexei Navalny, the activist and opposition leader who is incarcerated in Russia.

Girkin became a well-known figure in Russia for his prominent role in the country's military and as an officer in Federal Security Service (FSB), the successor agency to the KGB. He was reportedly instrumental in Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea and commanded Russian militants in Ukraine's Donbas region.

Since leaving the military, Girkin established himself as a popular blogger in Russia and frequently promoted pro-Kremlin propaganda. However, he has since become a vocal critic of Putin and Russia's military leaders over how the war in Ukraine has been conducted.

Last week, Girkin posted a critical essay on his Telegram channel in which he wrote that Russia's military leaders have "demonstrated blatant incompetence" in Ukraine and must be replaced or Russia risks losing the war.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote about Girkin's recent criticisms in its Sunday assessment of the war in Ukraine. The U.S.-based think tank said Girkin omits the FSB and FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov in his condemnations of Russian officials.

"Girkin's comments may indicate that there are considerable tensions between the Russian military command and the FSB, as well as within the FSB itself," the ISW wrote. "Girkin's acerbic commentary continues to provide insight into growing inner circle frictions."

Newsweek reached out to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs via email for comment.