Putin Worried About Controlling News as War Struggles Are Exposed: ISW

Russian President Vladimir Putin is apparently growing "uncertain" about his ability to control the national narrative about the war in Ukraine amid heavy frontline losses and a country beginning to feel the weight of crushing international sanctions.

Russian state news agency TASS reported on Wednesday that Putin would once again be delaying his address to parliament—the Russian equivalent of the State of the Union Address in the U.S.—until sometime in 2023, extending a gap since his last such address in April of 2021.

Official sources offered one explanation: that Putin, a source told TASS, needed to "seriously prepare for the message, and there is too little time left until the end of the year."

International observers, however, had their own interpretation: that the truth about Putin's war is becoming increasingly difficult to sell to the Russian public.

Putin's most recently anticipated address in April was delayed following its withdrawal from the Kyiv region and northern Ukraine mere weeks after the Russian invasion on February 24, likely spoiling the Kremlin's plans to declare victory during the Federation Assembly address.

In November, Russian forces lost control of the strategic port city of Kherson, while members of the Russian military—suffering from low morale and heavy losses—defected or even reportedly resorted to self-harm in efforts to leave the frontlines.

Putin also canceled his annual press conference with members of the Russian public for the first time in a decade on Friday in what analysts said was "likely in an attempt to avoid answering questions about Russia's military failures"

Instead, Putin has relied on a number of scripted and pre-recorded appearances to communicate narratives of the war, including a November 25 meeting with a group of 18 women who falsely, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), introduced themselves as mothers of mobilized servicemen in an attempt to assuage public concerns with the conscription campaign this year.

"Putin is likely attempting to preempt the risks associated with having to respond to a complex question," the ISW wrote in an update on the conditions of the war on Wednesday. "The cancellation of the press conference, however, may undermine Putin's populist appeal as a ruler in touch with his population."

Even Russia's most ardent propagandists are beginning to complain about the impact of Western economic sanctions imposed on Moscow, with some forecasters predicting soaring inflation along with steep contractions in the country's gross domestic product, while some analysts are predicting declines as high as 5 percent to 6 percent next year.

"Putin may not be confident in his ability to justify the cost of his war upon Russian domestic and global affairs when addressing the Russian public and elites," an analysis from the ISW concluded on Wednesday in reference to the TASS report.

"The unnamed TASS source noted that the address requires significant preparation by the president and his staff as it normally addresses plans for all aspects of Russian society—economy, education, military, global partnerships, etc."

Newsweek reached out to the Russian Presidential Press and Information Office for comment.

A tightly controlled narrative is also critical to the public's support of the war. While recent polling has shown that popular support for the war remains high among members of the Russian public, belief in the underlying motives for the war have begun to slip in recent months, with a majority of the public now supportive of a ceasefire in Ukraine.

The strongest critics, according to polling from the Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs and public research firm Levada, are those with access to independent media that depict more unflattering news of the Russian war effort.

"This is presumably at least in part due to the fact that they have been exposed to other narratives about the conflict," Emily Sullivan, a public opinion researcher at the Chicago Council, told Newsweek this week.