Putin's Forces Are Surrendering at Surging Pace: Ukraine Official

Russian President Vladimir Putin's troops are surrendering at an increasing pace in the ongoing war in Ukraine, according to Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence.

Ukraine's defense ministry said in a statement on Friday that the "sharp" increase in the number of Russian troops who want to surrender to "save their lives" is happening due to the expected spring counteroffensive by the Ukrainian army. Its statement added that some Russian soldiers are also being "captured directly" on the battlefield.

Putin launched his "special military operation" on Ukraine last February, aiming for a quick victory against his Eastern European neighbor. However, Ukraine responded with a stronger-than-expected defense effort, bolstered by Western aid, that has blunted Russian military gains. After more than a year of the conflict, combat remains concentrated in the easternmost regions of Ukraine, with analysts saying Russia's attempted winter offenses have largely failed.

Vitaliy Matvienko, spokesperson for the "I Want to Live" hotline, said that the registered appeals for surrender from Russian soldiers doubled from last month to 3,000 appeals.

"It's possible that more Russians are surrendering. However, the Ukrainian offensive has not yet begun, so I'm skeptical that is the reason for Russians surrendering," Mark F. Cancian, a senior adviser in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told Newsweek on Friday.

"I Want to Live" is a project run by the Coordinating Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, with support from Ukraine's defense ministry and the Main Directorate of Intelligence.

The project started last September to encourage Russian military members to protect their lives by giving up fighting for Moscow in a war that has extended to major Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, Kherson, and Odessa. Most recently, Russia's war intensified in Bakhmut, located in Ukraine's Donetsk region, the site of monthslong battles between Ukrainian and Russian forces.

"The Ukrainian counteroffensive operation on the ground has not yet begun, but its effect is already bearing fruit. The choice of a Russian soldier during the war is simple: either death or capture. However, a series of sudden, unexpected, lightning-fast events can change everything," read the Friday statement by the Ukrainian defense ministry, which warned that the window of opportunity for surrendering is "narrowing."

Cancian stated that the reaction of the Russian army when Ukraine launches its offenses will determine what comes next in the war.

"The key moment will be how the Russian army reacts when Ukraine launches its long-awaited offensive. If they [Russian army] fight effectively, that means that they are still an effective military force, regardless of individual surrenders. However, if they collapse, that could signal the beginning of the end of the Russian army in Ukraine," he said.

Earlier in March, Ukrainian officials reported that a total of 9,836 mobilized individuals from Russia and temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine opted to surrender.

There were around 3,500 appeals in November, which is the same month when the wives and mothers of 21 mobilized Russian soldiers claimed that men were being held captive in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine and threatened with execution for refusing to fight.

Though Ukrainian officials don't disclose the number of Russians who have already surrendered, they have repeatedly said that "their number is constantly growing, as is the interest in the project among Russians."

Over 14 million people have visited the "I Want to Live" hotline since it was launched, according to Ukrainian officials. Around 84 percent of the visitors were from Russia.

The project offers those who surrendered three meals per day, medical service, and possible contact with relatives. It also complies with Geneva Conventions of providing assistance and legal support through a variety of international organizations.

Newsweek reached out by email to the Russian defense ministry and Russian army analyst Pavel Felgenhauer for comment.

Update 4/8/2023, 5:55 p.m. ET: The story has been updated to include comments by Mark F. Cancian.