Putin's Man in Crimea Worried About Ability to Defend Area: U.K.

Sergei Aksyonov, the Kremlin-backed leader of Crimea, is "likely" concerned about the ability of the Russian military to defend the region, according to the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defense (MoD).

The Friday intelligence update from the U.K. defense ministry said Aksyonov will likely turn to recruiting more paramilitary groups outside of Russia's formal military ranks to bolster Crimea's defenses from attacks.

Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded and annexed Crimea in 2014, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said regaining the peninsula is one of his objectives in the war Putin started against his country last February.

Crimea has been the site of numerous attacks in recent weeks, including multiple drone strikes on the region's largest city, Sevastopol. Last week, Crimea was also the site of what regional authorities said was an act of sabotage when explosions reportedly caused a train derailment that led to a suspension of rail traffic between Sevastopol and Crimea's capital city of Simferopol.

Ukraine does not usually claim responsibility for strikes on Crimea, but government officials often celebrate attacks on the region when speaking with news outlets or commenting on social media.

In its intelligence update posted to Twitter, the British defense ministry wrote that Russia "has experienced a proliferation of paramilitary groups out of its regular armed forces" over the last 20 years and that the "paramilitarization" has "dramatically accelerated" since Russia launched its war against Ukraine.

The increased presence of these paramilitary groups has been "particularly important in the Crimean Peninsula," according to the ministry's assessment.

The U.K. intelligence update also said Aksyonov "has been instrumental in setting up several local units," most of which "have been given some semi-official status as reserve units of the regular army."

"Aksyonov is likely keen to burnish his patriotic credentials by recruiting fighters, but he is likely also concerned about the regular army's ability to defend the peninsula," the defense ministry wrote.

In addition, the U.K. noted that part of the reason why Aksyonov may be feeling vulnerable is that Russia's main garrison in Crimea—the 22nd Army Corps—has largely been pulled out of the peninsula to fight elsewhere in Ukraine.

During its deployment outside of Crimea, the 22nd Army Corps has also "taken heavy casualties."

Dr. Scott Savitz, a senior engineer at the RAND Corporation, told Newsweek that "Aksyonov's fostering of paramilitaries could stem from various drivers, many of which complement one another."

"As the U.K. MoD has pointed out, he may be seeking to influence his own image. It is also possible that by developing paramilitaries—thereby suggesting that they are needed—he is trying to garner attention for Crimea itself, in ways that would potentially stimulate the presence of conventional forces and infrastructure investments to support them," Savitz said. "Also, building paramilitary forces that are loyal to him could be useful in internal power struggles; for example, it constrains the ability of Moscow to easily replace him, if it ever wants to do so."

Savitz added that he feels a full Ukrainian invasion of Crimea is unlikely to occur in the near term, but paramilitaries could still be used for "internal repression." Noting the large population of indigenous Crimean Tatars and Ukrainians on the peninsula, he said locally recruited paramilitaries familiar with the environment in Crimea "could be particularly adept at repressing the Tatars, Ukrainians and smaller minorities, or even ethnic Russians who oppose Putin's regime."

Even unskilled paramilitary troops could aid with tasks like logistics or even cooking to free up conventional forces, Savitz said.

"In short, we don't know what Aksyonov's intent is, but it may be multifold," he said.

On the same day that the U.K.'s Ministry of Defense posted its update about Crimea, Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned senior U.S. diplomats to express a protest against comments made by U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan.

According to the Kremlin-controlled news agency Sputnik, the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement that Sullivan made comments in which he "approved" of Ukrainian strikes in Crimea.

Russia did not specify which remarks Sullivan made that led to its protest, but Reuters noted Sullivan said during a Sunday interview with CNN that the U.S. has "not placed limitations on Ukraine being able to strike on its territory within its internationally recognized borders."

"What we have said is that we will not enable Ukraine with U.S. systems, Western systems, to attack Russia," Sullivan said to the network. "And we believe Crimea is Ukraine."

Newsweek reached out to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs via email for comment.