Putin's Rare Comments Could Be New War Strategy

Russian President Vladimir Putin in the past week has publicly acknowledged several military shortcomings, from insufficient weapons to expensive equipment losses.

For a leader who has so infrequently admitted to failures throughout his war in Ukraine, Putin's recent admissions have given rise to speculation that he might be employing a new strategy.

Putin on Friday spoke during a press conference in Sochi about the launch of Ukraine's counteroffensive in the war he started with the February 24, 2022, invasion. During his comments, Putin said his military lacks "modern weapons" before adding that Russia's defense industry would solve the issue.

Putin made more admissions of shortcomings regarding the war in Ukraine during a Tuesday meeting with pro-Kremlin military bloggers. He said his air defenses were not properly prepared to respond to the recent attacks on border regions like Belgorod, and he added that Russia had lost 54 tanks during the course of Ukraine's current counteroffensive. Only days earlier, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed Russia had lost 15 tanks.

Putin at one point during the meeting with the bloggers also said that "during the course of the special military operation, it has become clear there are shortages of many things—precision-guided munitions, communications equipment, aircraft, drones and so on."

George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government professor Mark N. Katz noted that some of the military bloggers Putin spoke to on Tuesday have been critical of his war in Ukraine.

"Putin's statements, then, acknowledge what they have said as true," Katz told Newsweek. "He seems to be indicating that Russia can defeat Ukraine if Moscow is willing to make greater sacrifices, or it can hold the line against Ukraine making gains against Russia at lesser cost to Russia. And only he, Putin, can decide.

"In my view, he seems to be signaling to Ukraine that it should cease its efforts to regain more territory or risk Putin paying whatever price is necessary to defeat Ukraine. But this doesn't necessarily have to happen if Ukraine is 'reasonable.'"

David Silbey—an associate professor of history at Cornell University and director of teaching and learning at Cornell in Washington—told Newsweek that Putin's recent admissions seem "like two slightly different things."

"The shortages of equipment sound like a preemptive excuse if the Ukrainian offensive succeeds," Silbey said, adding that Putin could then blame Russian arms manufacturers for failing to build enough weapons for his forces.

"It works either way—if the Ukrainians fail, then Putin can claim credit despite the shortages," he said.

As for Russia's air defense systems, Silbey said, "Putin's a bit stuck."

"The attacks happened across the border, and so it's harder for him to clamp down on news because of that," he added. "So, I think, he's conceding a bit of ground because to not acknowledge things would seem completely out of touch."

The conservative Twitter account Politique Republic offered the theory that perhaps Putin is taking a page from Sun Tzu's The Art of War in trying to make Ukraine underestimate him.

In a tweet about Putin discussing weapons shortages, Politique Republic included an image with a quote from the Chinese military strategist: "Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak."

The overall result of the strategy behind Putin's comments could be bad for nearly everyone, though, according to Katz.

"Maybe I am overreading Putin here, but I think he's trying to get out of a bad situation for Russia by threatening to create a worse one for Russians, Ukrainians and Westerners," Katz said.