Putin's Relationship With North Korea Sparks Military Fears

A need for more weaponry and ammunition in Ukraine may facilitate an in-person meeting between Russian and North Korean leaders that puts the United States in a precarious yet powerless position, former U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper has told Newsweek.

U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Tuesday that dialogue between the two nations "are actively advancing" and could lead to an in-person meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin, leading to a weapons transfer as part of a broader arms deal.

Kim may travel to eastern Russia to meet with Putin to discuss sending Moscow artillery shells and other weapons in exchange for advanced technology for nuclear weapons and satellites, reported the New York Times.

Esper's sense is that the negotiations are being driven by Russia's specific need for 155mm ammunition on the Ukrainian battlefield, in addition to rockets and anti-tank missiles, for example. North Korea has a large stockpile of the former.

"I think what the [President Joe Biden] administration is doing is trying to use intelligence strategically to release it and put a focus on this transaction between Russia and North Korea—two of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world right now," Esper said via phone. "And then, I think, try and draw multilateral support as well to get that transaction turned off.

"I don't think it'll have much of an impact because there's been a long-standing relationship between Pyongyang and Moscow and Kim Jong Un has incentives to provide the ammunition in a barter relationship with Russia.

"The United States is going to call it out, we may try interdict it if possible. But otherwise, I don't think we're going to be able to have much impact on this transaction."

Esper's prediction, potentially shared by the Pentagon, is that the exchange for conventional munitions or advanced technology could aid North Korea's ballistic missile or submarine programs.

"I would be concerned because Russia has mastered those technologies, that they could help advance [Kim] in certain ways," he said. "And that, of course, would impact the United States, South Korea, Japan and other allies in the region."

Either way, he does not see how the U.S. could intervene in such transactions, considering the heavy sanctions already undertaken combined with the lack of various supplier groups involved.

"Russia is not going to abide by any of the obligations it made because it needs these technologies," he added. "I think it's something that we obviously have to monitor very closely, if not bore into, and make sure we know exactly what's being exchanged here and understand, at least for the Korean side, how it may help the DPRK (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) case, various programs but specifically their strategic programs."

Retired U.S. Army General Mark Hertling told CNN on Monday that he doesn't view any sort of weapons exchange as having a "great deal of significance," referring to both Putin and Kim as "desperate leaders of the world's most noted pariah states."

Air Force Brigadier General Patrick Ryder, the Department of Defense press secretary, told reporters at a briefing Tuesday that a deal between Russia and North Korea would violate multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions, and "it would prolong the unnecessary suffering of Ukrainian civilians who are impacted by Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine."

The Pentagon offered Newsweek no additional comment on the matter.

Esper said the conventional wisdom is that Putin continues to play the long game in Ukraine, where the war has exceeded 18 months..

Essentially, the longer it lasts, the better the chance that fatigue may set in among Ukraine's allies in terms of providing additional money and materials.

"There will probably be continued political support, but at some point the West will tire and all [Putin] has to do is wait out that period and hold as much terrain as he can in Ukraine until we reach that point in time," Esper said.

"I think he's playing a game of time. Because we know that, we also know it's important to see success on the battlefield sooner rather than later."

The Ukrainian government also doesn't have much pull in terms of interrupting any Putin-Kim negotiations, he added, due to the country's lack of reach compared to the U.S. and NATO allies.

Russia Assesses North Korea's Geopolitical Significance

Jenny Town, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center think tank and the director of Stimson's 38 North Program that analyzes North Korea, told Newsweek that she agreed with Esper's perspective on the U.S.' inability to likely impact any arm negotiations between its two rival countries.

Those discussions could also go beyond weaponry and include food and oil benefits on top of technology cooperation, she added, based on how Russia perceives North Korea fitting into its own geopolitical calculus.

"That said, I think it's unlikely that technology cooperation (weapons technology) would result in actual Russian systems or parts flowing into North Korea, but could result in exchanges of designs or even scientists that could help the North Koreans advance their WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) programs more quickly over time," she said.

Frank Aum, the senior expert on Northeast Asia at the U.S. Institute of Peace, told Newsweek that while the U.S. may not do much to impact Russia-North Korea cooperation, it should still put more emphasis on dissuading countries like North Korea from supporting Russia—such as through intensified diplomatic efforts with Pyongyang.

"Improving relations with North Korea might create a wedge between Pyongyang and Moscow, or at least not push Pyongyang into Moscow's arms," Aum said.

Town said that the DPRK is already seeing the U.S. and NATO take a larger role in Northeast Asia's security dynamics, including the deepening of U.S.-South Korea-Japan security cooperation, South Korea and Japan growing ties with NATO, and mini-laterals such as AUKUS (the acronym for the trilateral security pact agreed to in September 2021 between Australia, the U.K. and the U.S.) taking a bigger role in the region.

"These are all trends that have already caused concerns among China, North Korea and Russia, and that drive deeper cooperation among these actors as a reciprocal security bloc in the region, even if they don't always approve of each other's actions," Town said.

"North Korea providing material assistance to Russia, as Kim has pledged to do, may help Russia last longer.

"But it's certainly not the only country or even most consequential country that Russia could cooperate with on arms. The bigger questions is always, what does North Korea get for its support?"