Republican Senator Warns Trump Tariffs May Spur 'Political Decimation'

Republican Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky predicted that President Donald Trump's tariffs could lead to the "political decimation" of the Republican Party.

Newsweek reached out to the U.S. Treasury for comment via email.

Why It Matters

President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced sweeping tariffs for countries across the globe. Trump and supporters of these tariffs argue they are necessary to restore U.S. manufacturing, but many economists have warned that it will only amount to a new tax on U.S. consumers for many goods as companies pass off the additional expense.

Paul was one of four GOP senators who joined Democrats who voted to oppose Trump's tariffs on Canada on Wednesday and is one of few Republicans in Congress who are opposing his tariffs.

What To Know

Paul warned that, if history is any indicator, tariffs won't play out well for the Republican Party in remarks reported by Fox News on Wednesday.

"Tariffs have also led to political decimation," Paul said. "When [former President William] McKinley most famously put tariffs on in 1890, they lost 50 percent of their seats in the national election. When [Smoot-Hawley] put on their tariff in the early 1930s, we lost the House and the Senate for 60 years. So they're not only bad economically, they're bad politically."

In 1890, then-Representative William McKinley, a Republican, led the charge for new tariffs to protect manufacturing interests. Later that year, Republicans did suffer losses in the House of Representatives, losing 93 seats to Democrats and the Populist Party.

After the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which many economists say worsened the Great Depression, Republicans did struggle in elections for decades. From 1930 to 1995, they only held a House majority for two nonconsecutive terms, and the Senate for only six terms, amounting to about 12 years.

Robert Y. Shapiro, professor of political science at Columbia University, told Newsweek the tariffs will be "very costly" to Republicans in the midterms if they lead to higher prices, unemployment or a decline in economic growth.

Tariffs, Shapiro said, are likely to be the "biggest issue" of the election.

"The midterms are typically decided based on the ratio of good news to bad news for the party in the White House—in this case, that party controls Congress as well, so the implication is even greater—and that news is normally dominated by economic news (2006 was affected by the Iraq War), so that bad performance of the economy (2010 involved a lack of full recovery) could lead the Republicans to lose the House decisively. And the Senate could be at risk," Shapiro said.

He added that Republicans will likely stay "mostly silent" about tariffs, as it would be risk to defend them. Democrats, meanwhile, will be crafting a message preparing for an economic downturn.

"At this point, the Republicans need to hope that any negative effect of the tariffs will be short-lived and become a distant enough memory by the midterms," Shapiro said.

Prior to these tariffs, Democrats were already hopeful about their chances in the 2026 midterms. The party of the president typically loses seats during their midterm, giving historical precedent for a "blue wave" like in 2018. Overperformances in two Florida special elections and a victory in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race this week further fueled their optimism.

In addition to Paul, Republican Senators Susan Collins of Maine, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska also voted against the Canadian tariffs on Tuesday.

What People Are Saying

Senator Paul wrote in a post to X: "Tariffs don't punish foreign governments. They punish American families. When we tax imports, we raise the price of everything—from groceries to smartphones to washing machines to prescription drugs."

President Donald Trump, while announcing the new tariffs on Wednesday, said: "Chronic trade deficits are a national emergency."

David Hogg, vice chair of the Democratic National Committee, on X after Trump's announcement: "I'm very excited for midterms."

Representative Darren Soto, a Democrat from a potentially competitive Florida House district, on X: "Last year, our economy was the strongest on the planet. Unemployment & inflation were low, growth & investments were high. Pres Trump wrecked it in less than 100 days due to his tariffs, deportations & chaos. He promised to fix the economy. Well the 'fix' is in …"

What Happens Next

A 25 percent tariff on "all foreign-made automobiles" will take effect on April 3. The 10 percent "baseline" tariffs will take effect on April 5, and the reciprocal tariffs will kick in on April 9.

Markets quickly reacted negatively to Trump's tariffs as investors braced for their impact. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 3 percent within 30 minutes of opening Thursday morning.

Update 4/3/2025, 12:59 p.m. ET: This article was updated with expert comment from Robert Y. Shapiro, professor of political science at Columbia University.