Alarm Bells Ring for Raphael Warnock as Georgia Voters Head to Polls

Democrat Raphael Warnock could face a shock election defeat in the Georgia Senate runoff if supporters of Governor Brian Kemp and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver back Republican Herschel Walker.

On the eve of the December 6 polls opening, the incumbent Warnock appears to be narrowly ahead of his Donald Trump-endorsed rival, beating Walker in the past five runoff election polls.

However, there are signs that Walker, whose campaign has been dogged by controversies and scandals, may still pull off a win in the second Georgia Senate election.

A survey of 939 likely voters from FrederickPolls, COMPETE Digital and AMMPolitical revealed on November 29 that Warnock and Walker are currently tied 50/50.

The results also showed that while 94 percent of those who helped Kemp cruise to his gubernatorial victory in the midterms are backing Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff, a "small, but potentially meaningful" 11 percent of Kemp-Warnock voters said they would switch to Walker in the runoff.

Around 200,000 voters in the original November 8 election split their ticket and voted for Republican Kemp for governor but Democrat Warnock for senator.

With Warnock beating Walker by just over 36,000 votes in the first election—but failing to achieve the 50 percent threshold to avoid a runoff—Warnock will need to hold on to as many Kemp voters as possible in Tuesday's vote win reelection.

One of Warnock's campaign advertisements even featured a Kemp voter who said she cannot support Walker because she was concerned about the former NFL star's "honesty, hypocrisy, and also just his ability to lead."

"I just can't get past Herschel Walker's lack of character," voter Lynn Whittenburg said in the ad. "The fact that he lies so frequently is very concerning to me."

Despite previously distancing himself from the controversial candidate, Kemp is now campaigning on behalf of Walker for the Senate runoff.

"Governor Kemp is one of—if not the most important—pieces of the puzzle for a Walker victory on December 6," Stephen Lawson, a strategist for the Walker-aligned PAC 34N22, told Axios.

Elsewhere, Walker may still convince the 81,000 people who backed Libertarian Oliver in the original midterm election to switch their alliance and vote for the Republican.

Warnock led Walker in the original vote by 49.4 percent to 48.5 percent, with Oliver, who will not be on the December 6 ballot, receiving 2.1 percent of the vote.

Oliver voters could help erase Warnock's 36,465 margin lead if they turn out in equal numbers on Tuesday and swing to Walker by 2:1, as suggested they will in the FrederickPolls, COMPETE Digital and AMMPolitical survey.

Whether Libertarian voters would still turn out and choose another candidate is still up in the air.

Oliver previously told Newsweek that both Warnock and Walker would need to "fight for the Libertarian vote" in a runoff but would not endorse either candidate as he didn't want to tell voters "which of the lesser evils they want to pick."

"If I were [approached] by either of my opponents, they would get an emphatic 'no' from me and I would make sure everyone in the media knew that they approached me," Oliver said.

Even though the survey showed the Senate race a dead heat, all the subsequent polls give Warnock a slight lead.

A Patriot Polling survey released on the eve of the vote showed Warnock leading Walker by 1.7 percentage points (48.7 to 47 percent), while an Emerson College polling conducted between November 28 and November 30 showed Warnock leading Walker by 51 percent to 49 percent.

A late November SurveyUSA poll showed Warnock beating Walker by 50 percent to 47, with the Democrat also beating the Republican in an SSRS poll of likely voters (52-48) and registered voters (51-44).

Newsweek reached out to Warnock for comment.