COVID Causes a Huge Decrease in College Enrollments, New Report Finds

A new report from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center reveals the alarming effects COVID-19 has had on college enrollment. The key takeaway is that there was a decline of 21.7 percent of high school graduates who enrolled in college this fall.

However, the eight annual National College Progression Rates report indicates the pandemic had little impact on high school graduation in the school year 2019–2020. In fact, the change on high school graduation over last year was less than plus or minus 1.0 percent, regardless of income level, poverty level, minority level, or urbanicity of high schools. But those same distinctions of income and location show COVID-19 had a remarkably larger impact on immediate college enrollments rates for graduates of high-poverty, low-income and urban high schools.

The 21.7 percent decline of students going to college immediately after high school represents a decline of nearly eight times the pre-pandemic loss rate. (In 2019, 2.8 percent fewer students enrolled for college immediately after high school than the year prior.) Additionally, there were 29.2 percent fewer enrollments from graduates of low-income high schools, compared to a 16.9 percent drop from those from higher-income high schools; 26.4 percent fewer graduates of high-minority high schools enrolled in college versus a 18.0 percent decrease for low-minority high schools; there was a 32.6 percent drop for high-poverty school graduates while schools with low-poverty rates saw a 16.4 percent decrease; and 25.1 percent fewer graduates of urban high schools enrolled in college, while there were 19.8 percent fewer new enrollees from suburban high schools and 18.1 percent fewer from rural high schools.

The report also shows which colleges took the hardest hits in admissions. Public, four-year colleges had a decrease of 13.8 percent in new enrollments this fall, compared to a 4.0 percent decrease in the fall of 2019. Private, nonprofit four-year schools had a loss of 28.6 percent in new students, continuing—although much rapidly—a trend from last year when there were 5.9 percent less new enrollments. Community colleges felt the biggest hit, though. Those schools saw a 30.3 percent decrease in new enrollments. Last year, however, community colleges actually had a minute increase of 0.7 percent. (For-profit, four-year colleges and private, two-year colleges were not shown in the report due to small numbers.)

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center research looks at indicators of high school to "college transition, persistence, and completion outcomes" for high school graduates. The data is based on data as of September 18, for 2,324 high schools across the country with differing characteristics of income, minority, and urbanicity.