Ranking Every Republican Impeachment Attempt From Least to Most Likely

Republicans have made moves to impeach a number of public figures this week.

In statements and press interviews, members of the GOP have suggested that Lloyd Austin, Merrick Garland and Alejandro Mayorkas face articles of impeachment.

These calls come amid a continued impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden over allegations he improperly supported the business activities of his son, Hunter Biden, while he was vice president to Barack Obama.

Some of these impeachment efforts are more likely to proceed than others.

Newsweek contacted a representative for the GOP by email to comment on this story.

Below, Newsweek has ranked them from least to most likely to succeed.

Lloyd Austin

Montana Republican Matt Rosendale filed an impeachment resolution against Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin over the Chinese spy balloon that flew over his home state in February last year, accusing him of having "jeopardized the lives of the American people."

U.S. officials said they were confident the "high-altitude surveillance balloon" came from China after the balloon was detected over the state, having made its way over Alaska's Aleutian Islands and Canada.

"Sec. Austin has violated his oath of office time and time again, and has jeopardized the lives of the American people," Rosendale said in a statement.

Austin made headlines this week after failing to communicate his hospitalization to the White House for three days. He has been diagnosed with prostate cancer.

The resolution did not mention Austin's hospitalization, but in his statement Rosendale added that Austin's "dishonesty seems to be a repeated pattern for the Secretary as he once again lied to our military and the American people about his health last week."

The resolution is not privileged, meaning a vote will not be forced on the issue within two legislative days, and so multiple commentators have suggested the House will prioritize other business.

Indeed, MSNBC political contributor Steven Benen wrote that the effort "won't amount to much."

Merrick Garland

James Comer has suggested that Attorney General Merrick Garland could be impeached if he does not side with Republicans in a clash with Hunter Biden.

Speaking to Newsmax, the House Oversight Committee chairman was asked whether there would be grounds to impeach the attorney general if federal prosecutors chose not to charge Hunter Biden for the crime of contempt of Congress. Republicans want to charge the president's son for insisting on making his testimony to the Committee transparent. When they subpoenaed him, the wanted to question the younger Biden behind closed doors.

"I think so," Comer replied, when asked about the issue.

"We know how he's treated two Republicans that were held in contempt of Congress," Comer said. "Now he's going to have an opportunity to hold the same type of justice with a Democrat that disavowed a lawful subpoena."

As things stand, this appears to be speculative rather than concrete, though that could change.

Even if House Republicans are successful in impeaching Garland with their slim majority, he is not at real risk of being removed by the Senate, which is controlled by Democrats. There are also multiple Republican senators who have rejected the idea that Biden administration officials should face impeachment en masse.

Alejandro Mayorkas

The House Homeland Security Committee held its first impeachment hearing for Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas yesterday over the border crisis. Border crossings have reached record highs but Democrats have said Republicans pushing impeachment are playing partisan politics.

The hearing included testimony from the attorneys general from Montana, Oklahoma and Missouri, all states led by Republican governors, who said they have dealt with impacts from his policies even though none of them neighbor Mexico.

After the hearings, there may be a committee vote which if passed would be sent to the full House for consideration, where it may not pass because of opposition.

Conservative legal scholar Jonathan Turley hit out against it in a Daily Beast opinion piece on Tuesday, saying that while he disagreed with Mayorkas's handling of immigration, his conduct was not "criminal or impeachable."

"Being bad at your job is not an impeachable offense," he wrote.

As in the case of Garland, any impeachment would also run into the same issue of a Democratic-controlled Senate.

Only one U.S. Cabinet official, Secretary of War William Belknap in 1876, has ever been impeached.

Joe Biden

In December, the House of Representatives voted to launch an impeachment inquiry into the president following months of investigating allegations that he intervened and benefited from his son Hunter Biden's business dealings with China and Ukraine while the elder Biden was vice president under Barack Obama, including accusations of taking bribes.

The allegations have been denied by the White House and Hunter Biden's lawyers, with Democrats criticizing the GOP's impeachment inquiries for what they say is a failure to find any meaningful evidence against the president.

Those pushing the impeachment inquiry say they do have evidence. The allegations include that Biden lied to the American people about his own knowledge in his family's foreign business dealings, and that the Treasury Department has more than 150 transactions involving the Bidens and other business associates that were flagged as "suspicious" by U.S. banks. They also accuse the president and his son of "coercing" officials with Ukrainian gas giant Burisma into giving them each $5 million as part of an elaborate influence-peddling scheme.

This week, House Republicans will seek to interview Hunter Biden associate Kevin Morris, who has worked as part of Hunter Biden's legal team and reportedly lent him money, according to CNN Capitol Hill reporter Annie Grayer.

But as there is apparently still a lack of concrete evidence against Biden, a potential future impeachment vote may not pass the House. If it does, it is unlikely the Senate would pass it, given the Democrat majority.