Ukraine Faces Growing Calls From US to Cede Land to Russia

Ukraine is facing growing calls to cede land to Russia as the bloody war trudges through another winter.

Polling and comments from U.S. politicians and former officials are increasingly raising questions over whether Ukraine is pursuing the best policy, amid reports Russian President Vladimir Putin is open to the idea of a ceasefire.

A New York Times report indicated the Kremlin was sending messages through diplomatic back channels that a deal could be made, despite its public statements that taking control of the whole of Ukraine was still the main objective.

Times board member and international affairs specialist Serge Schmeman said that Ukraine should consider the deal because the slow-moving nature of the front means the war "lives without much prospect for change in the foreseeable future." The front has remained in something of a stalemate over the winter.

Schmeman said the prospect of giving up territory—Russia controls just less than a fifth of its neighbor—would be extremely difficult for Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky, but "true victory" would be Ukraine becoming a "strong, independent, prosperous and secure state."

"It would be exactly what Mr. Putin most feared from a neighboring state with deep historical ties to Russia," he wrote in the editorial.

In an opinion piece for the Asia Times, Stephen Bryen, former staff director of the Near East Subcommittee of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said a deal may be the only option left for Ukraine.

Ousting Zelensky from his role as president may also be the sole way of accomplishing this, Bryen said.

"Washington may decide the only way out is a coup d'état in Ukraine, replacing Zelensky with either a political or military leader willing to sit down with the Russians," he wrote.

Bryen added that Russia is attempting to consolidate minor gains.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said there have been small gains for Putin's forces in the eastern regions near Bakhmut and Kupiansk, along with advantages gained near the Donetsk city of Avdiivka, considered strategically important.

Further reports pointed to by Bryen said Ukraine is struggling for manpower. A Reuters conversation with a U.S. official in December said Ukraine has just 90 percent of the personnel it had at the beginning of the war.

But the idea of a deal with Putin comes with a number of problems that critics of any such plan are quick to cite. Schmeman said there were possible ulterior motives to a Putin plan, including using it as an opportunity bolster his military reserves or play a waiting game.

A ceasefire could embolden already concerned lawmakers in the U.S. to push harder for Congress to withhold providing funds to Ukraine, which it needs to continue the fight.

It may also buy Putin time ahead of the 2024 presidential election, which could be won by former President Donald Trump.

It is not clear if a Trump presidency would mean aid to Ukraine is scaled back or cut off. Reuters reported in December 2023 that foreign diplomats are nervy Trump could pull out of Ukraine.

Trump has only made broad statements on the matter. He did not elaborate on a statement to NBC's Meet the Press in November last year that he could end the war in 24 hours for fear of losing "bargaining chips."

Some of his supporters, however, are clear that the U.S. ceasing its funding of Ukraine is the best policy available.

Among them is Republican Senator J.D. Vance, who has said, Ukraine could give land to Russia in "America's best interest" to put an end to the war.

Senator Vance said it was preposterous to think that the Ukrainian military was going to force Russian troops back to the border crossed during the invasion in February 2022. Vance told CNN's State of the Union: "What's in America's best interest is to accept Ukraine is going to have to cede some territory to the Russians and we need to bring this war to a close."

The Biden administration has been a staunch backer of Ukrainian efforts to repel the Russian invasion, but President Joe Biden has faced difficulty getting his latest request for funding through Congress. Newsweek contacted representatives of Vance and the White House by email for comment.

The White House's argument is that giving up on funding Ukraine could potentially lead to conflict with a NATO country, forcing the U.S. and its troops to intervene.

A Republican-controlled House has not approved Biden's funding request of $106 billion, which includes $61 billion in additional aid for Ukraine. Also contained in the bill are funds for Israel and U.S. border security, a key negotiating point for Republicans.

"What we're saying to the president, and really to the entire world, is you need to articulate what the ambition is; what is $61 billion going to accomplish that $100 billion hasn't?" Vance said.

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy estimated that more than $79 billion in financial, humanitarian and military aid had been sent by the U.S. to Ukraine since the Russian invasion.

Vance isn't alone in his party. In February 2023, Florida Representative Matt Gaetz introduced a resolution co-sponsored by 10 other House Republicans to end aid to Ukraine.

Part of the frustration for conservatives is the lack of movement in the war. Ukraine has received vast amounts of aid but, as things stand, it remains unlikely that it will emerge victorious against Putin's forces and push them out.

Security expert Dr. Rod Thornton of the Defense Studies Department at King's College London in the U.K. told Newsweek previously that the war is expected to remain as something of a stalemate for months to come.

"What we are going to end up is a frozen conflict," Thornton said. "We are going to end up with Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine and the front lines aren't going to move."

On December 29, Russia launched a major aerial bombardment on Ukraine, whose officials said strike sites included residential buildings, a maternity hospital and school.

Biden called it Russia's "largest aerial assault on Ukraine since this war began." He used the strikes to call for Congress to pass more aid for Ukraine.

Biden said in a statement on December 29: "In the face of this brutal attack, Ukraine deployed the air defense systems that the United States and our Allies and partners have delivered to Ukraine over the past year to successfully intercept and destroy many of the missiles and drones."

A total of 114 out of 158 missiles used in the attack were shot down, the Ukrainian Air Force said. Newsweek has been as yet unable to verify these figures.

Biden added: "The American people can be proud of the lives we have helped to save and the support we have given Ukraine as it defends its people, its freedom, and its independence.

"But, unless Congress takes urgent action in the new year, we will not be able to continue sending the weapons and vital air-defense systems Ukraine needs to protect its people. Congress must step up and act without any further delay," the president added.

Biden's policy might not be all that popular, however. A survey conducted exclusively for Newsweek found just 23 percent of Americans think Kyiv should retake all of the land it lost to Russia since 2024. This number fell from from 28 percent in the survey conducted for Newsweek in February.

A total of 45 percent of respondents to the Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll said Ukraine should attempt to regain all of the land lost since February 2022.

Update, 01/15/24, 1:30 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.